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Whats the Fed to do??


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#1 12SPX

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 07:52 AM

Curious what people are thinking about what people think the Fed is going to do and say?  I have a hard time believing they can be real hawkish in their talk as I don't think they will raise rates so many times as there is so much debt out there.  I think 3.00% and that's it and they won't rush to get there!!  Although do think this one will be .50%, after that.......



#2 MikeyG

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 08:30 AM

2-2.5 percent Fed Funds Rate will be the top of this cycle, maximum! Its very possible they dont get past 2.

Edited by MikeyG, 03 May 2022 - 08:31 AM.


#3 steadyquest

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 01:14 PM

My ff - following tomorrow's scorching of the earth by the fed (actually more wish than forecast)

 

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#4 12SPX

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 05:28 PM

Would love to see a longer chart with those lines to see where they are coming from!! 



#5 pdx5

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 06:42 PM

FED is data driven. Nostradamus is not on the FED board. Which means no one knows where the rates will end up by year end.

 

Therefore if inflation stays high for next 6 months, FED has tiger by the tail. If they go hawkish on rates, stocks will crash. If they go dovish, and inflation stays high, that will make interesting scenario to watch.


Edited by pdx5, 03 May 2022 - 06:42 PM.

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#6 steadyquest

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 11:17 AM

I like 3700 as the terminal price for this correction - punishing to those scaling too soon into leveraged funds

 

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#7 12SPX

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 11:25 AM

Would love to see where those lines are coming from, always say its easy to put lines where they look good after the fact....