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the real reason for todays ramp


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#1 da_cheif

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 02:51 PM

Subject 59602

the real reason for todays push ......my take :>)



#2 Douglas

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 03:30 PM

Don, you are probably right.  The political right is definitely smelling a fall off-year election landslide, but you have to admit that Powell basically punted on any serious attempt to tackle inflation in the presser today.  Powell blamed Vlad, the bug and everything supply-side-wise for inflation, but not his trillions of dollars of funny money printing.  The big stock market rally really went into overdrive when Steve Liesman of CNBC asked his question and Powell took 75 basis point hikes in the FED funds rates off the table.  That basically meant Powell was not Volker and would not fight inflation, but instead was channelling Volker's predecessor, clueless Arthur Burns, who let the inflation fire burn out of control.  I'm sure the more hawkish of the FED feathered flock will waddle their way to a microphone in the coming hours to clarify Powell's dovish statements, but Powell has definitely helped the bullish case  in a big way today.

 

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#3 trioderob

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 05:40 PM

this was all about Powell not doing something crazy and going hog wild.

 

not about Trump at all 

 

market was thinking " God help us - what are they about to do next ? " 



#4 linrom1

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 10:15 PM

Don, you are probably right.  The political right is definitely smelling a fall off-year election landslide, but you have to admit that Powell basically punted on any serious attempt to tackle inflation in the presser today.  Powell blamed Vlad, the bug and everything supply-side-wise for inflation, but not his trillions of dollars of funny money printing.  The big stock market rally really went into overdrive when Steve Liesman of CNBC asked his question and Powell took 75 basis point hikes in the FED funds rates off the table.  That basically meant Powell was not Volker and would not fight inflation, but instead was channelling Volker's predecessor, clueless Arthur Burns, who let the inflation fire burn out of control.  I'm sure the more hawkish of the FED feathered flock will waddle their way to a microphone in the coming hours to clarify Powell's dovish statements, but Powell has definitely helped the bullish case  in a big way today.

 

Regards,

Douglas    

Thanks, missed today....will see if other pundits pick up on this.



#5 pdx5

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 10:50 PM

The charade of fighting inflation can not go on very long. Coming November election is gonna be a rude shock to many. American middle class is waking up finally. Douglas in his post above correctly identifies the real cause of inflation, trillions of dollars of funny money printing. Powell was printing funny money. No one admits their mistakes unless they are a man with courage and self confidence. Powell is just another academic with zero real world experience and missing 2 big ones.


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#6 fib_1618

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Posted 05 May 2022 - 12:18 AM

Don, you are probably right.  The political right is definitely smelling a fall off-year election landslide, but you have to admit that Powell basically punted on any serious attempt to tackle inflation in the presser today.  Powell blamed Vlad, the bug and everything supply-side-wise for inflation, but not his trillions of dollars of funny money printing.  The big stock market rally really went into overdrive when Steve Liesman of CNBC asked his question and Powell took 75 basis point hikes in the FED funds rates off the table.  That basically meant Powell was not Volker and would not fight inflation, but instead was channelling Volker's predecessor, clueless Arthur Burns, who let the inflation fire burn out of control.  I'm sure the more hawkish of the FED feathered flock will waddle their way to a microphone in the coming hours to clarify Powell's dovish statements, but Powell has definitely helped the bullish case  in a big way today.

 

1/2% increase was an easy call today...the boys and girls in the pits are still looking for another 1/2% in June and 1/2% in July.

 

Longer term, the current forecast is for the target rate to be around 3% one year from now.

 

Fib


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#7 Douglas

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Posted 05 May 2022 - 02:06 AM

The FED's "solution" is to just get rid of the symptoms, demand driven rising prices, not the disease, FED funny money printing enabling capital misallocation by business and government.  The FED in all likelihood will be briefly successful in making the inflation genie get back in the bottle by temporarily reducing their largess, but the second they try to ease again, I'm sure Barbara Eden will pop out of the bottle once again doing more mischief.  Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  Powell is the reincarnation of clueless Arthur Burns.  Biden is working hard to be the hapless one term president Jimmie Carter with the twist that he's a war monger not a peace maker.  I just hope disco isn't going to make a comeback.  I have long since thrown out my wide ties and bellbottom trousers.  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#8 fib_1618

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Posted 05 May 2022 - 05:28 AM

The FED has always been asleep behind the wheel.

 

The rest you can blame on the ongoing failure of Keynesian economics.

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

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#9 da_cheif

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Posted 05 May 2022 - 05:56 AM

HAHHAHAHAHA......THE really really reason is that nobodies bullish no more   ..and cycles nested  ....and aaii sentiment numbers are back to levels not seen since 2009....watch the sky...snort



#10 Douglas

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Posted 05 May 2022 - 07:30 AM

Don, based on current FED action, you are definitely historically right to be watching the sky.  It certainly appears that a rising FED funds rate has in the past been accompanied by a rising stock market.  It's when the FED starts cutting rates trying to fend off a recession that bear markets are underway.   The crude plot overlap below shows the FF rate in blue and the DJIA below.   So it's perfectly fine to watch the big blue sky today, but if Jerome starts cutting in earnest, you better brace yourself for a tumble.

 

THae9WP.png

 

Regards,

Douglas