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BULLS last desperate stand: BEAR rules!


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#11 12SPX

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 07:37 AM

Good morning well isn't this interesting.  Yes I do love catching falling knives as I've had to do it the whole way down on this correction lol!!  Would have been easier to stay short the last 300 points true but that'd be no fun and were now 5 months into this "correction" and only down a little over -15%.  Thought there would be more of a bounce for today but my pajama traders filled me on my two rogue buys at 4050 and 4040 and just bought my ndx at 12420 so easy to add to that falling knife with an average long now of 4068 on the ES and 12460 on the ndx..  Final 10-days of trading for this expiration cycle now and I'm sure its going to be exciting, may even add to my sold put position!! 



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 08:06 AM

The cycle in #ES_F continues: Big drop, relief squeeze to trap bulls, drop. Last week, I was looking for backtest of 4155 then then sell to 4065, 4020s and played out Plan today: Dip to 4015, bulls can't bounce it there, 3945 next. Above 4065 triggers squeeze to 4155 direct
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ZVBuToeP_mini.jpg
 
Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
· May 6
Excellent follow through and its now *6x* exact same drill played out: Rally to 4155-65, trap longs, selloff. Every single bounce this week has been sold Manage risk here if short as #ES_F loves last hour squeezes, but unless 4155 reclaims 4065, 4020 remains on deck next week


#13 dTraderB

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 08:11 AM

Path of least resistance is DOWN

But, heading towards a reversal zone

Will a CRASHY MONDAY plunge bottom near -250 or -300?

 

 

McClellanOsc_1295.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 08:12 AM

Yeah, this could be a BAD late SUMMER into seasonally bearish Sep/Oct

fedassets_may2022.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...qt3_will_bring/

 

Path of least resistance is DOWN

But, heading towards a reversal zone

Will a CRASHY MONDAY plunge bottom near -250 or -300?

 

 

McClellanOsc_1295.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#15 dTraderB

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 08:15 AM

Bearishness has spiked but panic not yet pervasive when looking at Panic/Euphoria model from ⁦
@sentimentrader
 
 
 


#16 dTraderB

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 08:17 AM

The Nasdaq 100 has opened down 2% or more to a one-year low on 5 other Mondays (when traders panic over a weekend): 10/26/87
11/13/00 03/12/01 09/17/01 10/06/08
 
Anyone still tryna guess what kind of market we're in?

 

Bearishness has spiked but panic not yet pervasive when looking at Panic/Euphoria model from ⁦
@sentimentrader
 
 
 

 



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 08:19 AM

Monday Market Momentum – Still Heading Lower

By phil

Posted: May 9, 2022 - 8:34am

 

4,000.

That's out downside for the S&P 500  and it SHOULD provide support but that doesn't mean we can't overshoot to the downside by the same 160 points (weak) or 320 points (strong) that we expect for our bounces off the 4,000 line.  An overshoot is not out of the question if people begin to panic and, don't forget, this is a market CORRECTION, not a pullback.  A pullback assumes you will retake the previous highs while a correction assumes the previous traders WERE HIGH and now we are heading back to rational levels that can be supported by rational traders using rational valuations.  

We've taken a very hard fall since the Fed Meeting last week, when we never should have gained 5% in the first place.  Overall, the S&P is simply regressing from the 20% overshoot of the 4,000 line and, of course, if 4,000 is the correct middle of our range, then a 20% drop to 3,200 is not out of the quesition either – but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. 

This is why we pumped up our hedges last week, ahead of the Fed and that will help smoothe out the bumps along the way to 4,000 or even 3,200 but, if 4,000 doesn't hold, we will begin to add even more hedges and even to begin reducing our longs as there's no sense riding out another drop like the one we've already had. 



#18 dTraderB

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 08:23 AM

will consider AAPL CALLS below 150

 

BAC below 35 to 36



#19 dTraderB

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 08:24 AM

DOWN DOWN

attempt to rally

DOWN DOWN

LOW

then rally in final 2 hours

 

if NOT, then ES 3800 this week



#20 dTraderB

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Posted 09 May 2022 - 08:25 AM

Priority is adding  UVXY CALLS   & TLT CALLS

 

Bears want to see 90% DVOL off open & remain so through 10:45 EST. That would suggest no reversal & downtrend w/90DVOL close. 90 DVOL’s can happen in a series on serious down-legs until selling is exhausted. Bulls need a reversal w/close above $SPX 4070 & 4101.23 preferably.

DOWN DOWN

attempt to rally

DOWN DOWN

LOW

then rally in final 2 hours

 

if NOT, then ES 3800 this week