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Bought TLT this am


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#11 slupert

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Posted 11 May 2022 - 05:48 PM

Nice trade, I got shaken out in todays whipsaw. Good Luck!



#12 pdx5

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Posted 12 May 2022 - 03:05 AM

Like I said good for very short term trades with volatility. Very dangerous for anything longer than a few weeks. Federal deficits are running at multiple Trillions every year. Interest rates are going up for at least 2 years more. How is that good for 10 year bonds?
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#13 MDurkin

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Posted 12 May 2022 - 04:27 AM

Keep an open mind... this thing might just be starting...the great reset?

 

 

Charlie Bilello

 

The market is still expecting 50 bps rate hikes in June and July. It's been a long, long time since we've seen the Fed not respond to a large stock market decline with easy money. And you have to go back to Volcker to find a Fed that has tightened policy into a bear market.

 

Terry Laundry type chart:

 

https://stockcharts....id=p45545342106


Edited by MDurkin, 12 May 2022 - 04:32 AM.


#14 pdx5

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Posted 12 May 2022 - 04:53 AM

I am not so sure we can call this bear market just yet.
SPX was at 2250 in March-April 2020.
Now just over 2 years later it is at 3975.

Sure FED put has gone on since Volker.
But that was during time inflation was half at most compared to now.
I am not seeing which policies Biden & congress is proposing which will cause serious drop in inflation. Our country runs on energy. What proposals currently being considered will stop oil prices to drop? Please enlighten me. $40 Billion proposal to help Ukraine fight Russia? Where is that $40B coming from? More debt? Bigger cost to service that debt? That will reduce interest rates?
How long will the voters tolerate 8% inflation? Can FED keep rates 6.5% below inflation rates without politicians rioting?
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#15 MDurkin

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Posted 12 May 2022 - 05:08 AM

Let the market find it's REAL price without any interference from the Fed (QE, buying bonds). Lets see where we are at in Oct.



#16 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 12 May 2022 - 03:39 PM

I am not so sure we can call this bear market just yet.
SPX was at 2250 in March-April 2020.
Now just over 2 years later it is at 3975.
 

By my measures it's a confirmed Bear Market.

And, probably about ready for a rip-roaring bounce.

 

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#17 RadioHead

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Posted 12 May 2022 - 05:52 PM

I absolutely agree. This is a bear market. And I also agree that the current sentiment and technical oversold conditions will produce a huge bounce.

#18 MDurkin

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Posted 21 May 2022 - 05:10 PM

TLT might be ready to rocket never seen a head and shoulders like this..

 

 

 

https://stockcharts....id=p45545342106


Edited by MDurkin, 21 May 2022 - 05:11 PM.


#19 Chilidawgz

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 04:12 PM

bounce5.gif?sv=2019-07-07&sr=b&sig=WIkn2


Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
 
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil