195 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

That was one of the most punishing BEAR MARKET RALLY, and it was a PAINFUL SQUEEZE.  
My last post called for a 5 to 10% rally and we are almost there, up by about 8% from that low. 

But, unless the 200 MA is taken out and ES breaks above 4250, this remains one of those typical 

BEAR MARKET rallies. 

 

This POLL is extremely bullish... the "crowd" is bullish but could be in for a sharp reversal soon, possible retest of 2022 LOWS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  60.4%
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  DOWN

  39.6%

4,151 votes·Final results

[dTraderB]

with energy prices soaring, inflation will remain high; Fed begins QT if they stick to their plan, 

and there is no doubt of more 50 bps rate increases ahead. 
War in Ukraine continues, China still affected by COVID surges...  

MAYBE WITH ALL these bearish factors, the BULLS may surprise us with another 10% rally. 

 

Don't think so

 

BIDEN meeting POWELL tomorrow, President's rating quite low.... Gas prices at the pump still rising...

"The Fed’s Christopher Waller Wants 50 bps Rate Hikes Until Inflation Subsides, US Savings Data Plummets"

[dTraderB]

If recent BUYERS panic then the PLUNGE could be far more painful that the BEAR RALLY SQUEEZE, with a new 2022 ES LOW.

Markets skittish, BULLS are vulnerable even after a 8% rally...

 

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

6m

 

After last weeks squeeze in #ES_F, what 1st dip looks like will be very telling. Similar recent squeezes (May 4) unraveled hard 1st or 2nd red day & didnt look back. Bulls looking for follow through want to see a change in the form of a bought dip, ideally >4100 (old May high)

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

· 12h

Short trading day with #ES_F closing 1pm. Last week, ES broke its downtrend line from March, starting its next relief leg Plan today: Dip to 4165 (4135 below). As long as it holds, 4255-65 remains target. Bears want to see reversal there to stop relief bounce from being a bottom

[dTraderB]

This "Constructive 3-day Breadth" is BULLISH -- except for 2009
Also, it just missed a BREADTH THRUST

More details at tweet:

Mark Ungewitter

 

@mark_ungewitter

 

Constructive 3-day breadth.

 

https://twitter.com/...297890484133888

Edited by dTraderB, 30 May 2022 - 08:14 PM.

[pdx5]

with energy prices soaring, inflation will remain high; Fed begins QT if they stick to their plan, 

and there is no doubt of more 50 bps rate increases ahead. 
War in Ukraine continues, China still affected by COVID surges...  

MAYBE WITH ALL these bearish factors, the BULLS may surprise us with another 10% rally. 

 

Don't think so

 

BIDEN meeting POWELL tomorrow, President's rating quite low.... Gas prices at the pump still rising...

"The Fed’s Christopher Waller Wants 50 bps Rate Hikes Until Inflation Subsides, US Savings Data Plummets"

Pretty much sums it up!

I always keep this thought in my head...bear market rallies usually are much more potent than bull market rallies.

Powell would love to drop the rate increase idea like a hot potato, but political pressure will not let him.

Biden's party is very worried about effect of inflation could have in November.

88% voters #1 issue is INFLATION with next election is only 5 months away. 

[dTraderB]

Walter Deemer

 

@WalterDeemer

·

May 29

 

The shortest-term reliable breadth thrust, IMO, is the 5-day Whaley Breadth Thrust defined in https://docs.cmtassociation.org/pdfs/dowaward-2010.pdf…. We can get one if Tues has ~1750 net advances or Tues/Wed average ~700 net advances. Will be important confirmation/lack thereof of Lowry's 3 80% upside days.

 

 

This "Constructive 3-day Breadth" is BULLISH -- except for 2009
Also, it just missed a BREADTH THRUST

More details at tweet:

Mark Ungewitter

 

@mark_ungewitter

 

Constructive 3-day breadth.

 

https://twitter.com/...297890484133888

 

[dTraderB]

This is BEARISH! EXTENDED! 

At least a 1-day pullback! 

I would have already shorted ES earlier tonight if I had seen this ... but was away and only now catching up...

 

Above 300 is a rare phenomenon!

 

and, the summation index increased by 350 points!

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

More here:

https://www.marketin...e-decline-ratio

 

https://www.marketin...-highs-new-lows

 

 

This is BEARISH! EXTENDED! 

At least a 1-day pullback! 

I would have already shorted ES earlier tonight if I had seen this ... but was away and only now catching up...

 

Above 300 is a rare phenomenon!

 

and, the summation index increased by 350 points!

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

Great week, excellent May, and five consecutive profitable months in 2022

 

I am about 75% hedged small positions after closing LONGS during that rally last week. 

 

Will trade mainly NQ - daytrading, add TLT CALLS, add UVXY CALLS, and  will start new QQQ & SPY PUT positions

 

Still holding a few QQQ & SPY CALLS, a few stocks & stock CALLS. 

 

Will close remaining LONGS (including CALLS) on any rally 

 

But my focus will be starting a new SHORT position  

[12SPX]

No surprise here to see the market pullback after the 5% plus rally we saw last week that was even stronger than I anticipated last Monday.  Market is quite overbought and as I said on d's other thread, 4200 was a gift to add to shorts.  Profit stop 4035 and 60 on my sold 4200 calls for the cash open.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the breakout level of the rally but more importantly the market is in a grind grind grind mode with everything going on and no one wants to commit too long to holding anything as I believe were still in the first phase of the everything bubble popping.  The market likes the idea that the Fed isn't going to raise as much as everyone originally thought but its still going to be enough to slow everything wayyyyyy down....