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ST BOUNCE, then LOWER LOWS


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 12 June 2022 - 05:56 PM

Closed 1 ES HEDGE SHORT   +73.5 

Holding 1 ES & 2 NQ HEDGE SHORT

 

I expect a ST BOUNCE, maybe 40 to 60 points rally, then LOWER LOWS, new 2022 LOWS

 

I will be adding LONGS on any lower low --  best buying opportunity for 2022 and best since 2020 plunge

 

There is a more than 50-50 probability that 2022 could be a DOWN year. 

 

Will open new USD/YEN SHORTs

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 12 June 2022 - 06:10 PM

There still are people who are afraid or unwilling to blame the FED; then, there are those who still think the FED can thread the needle to engineer a soft landing. Some even suggest thrown caution to the wind! YEAH, RIGHT, get reckless and gamble people's jobs etc after failing to tackle inflation since last year.  They are drinking too much of that potent beverage.

POWELL will not last his term, he will be forced to resign.
 

"But I think the Fed now has two big reasons to throw its caution to the wind.

Introducing the ‘Beveridge curve’

The first is what the latest inflation data tells us. Runaway inflation is terrible for an economy, and very painful for consumers, and so the Fed has no choice but to bring it down at whatever cost.

The other has to do with what is known as the Beveridge curve, a tool economists use to analyze the labor market and one increasingly being monitored by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others.

The Beveridge curve looks at the statistical relationship between the level of unemployment and the number of open job vacancies. The idea behind this curve is pretty straightforward: When there are many unfilled vacancies, the labor market is extremely tight, and it is easy to find work, leading to an extremely low level of unemployment. On the other hand, in a slack market, the number of vacancies is low and it is more difficult to find jobs and the unemployment is high.

In May, there were 11.5 million job vacancies in the U.S. for 6 million unemployed people. This nearly 2-1 ratio is wildly high – the highest ever recorded. In contrast, before the pandemic, when the labor market was in very solid shape, there was one vacancy for every two unemployed people. The Beveridge curve uses rates, so it currently shows a 7.3% job opening rate over a 3.6% unemployment rate.

Historically, a drop in job openings – prompted by a slowing economy, for instance – corresponds with a rise in unemployment, and vice versa. But the pandemic has changed the existing pattern dramatically, and it looks as if unemployment is less responsive to changes in the job opening rate. This means the Fed could get more aggressive about hiking interest rates to curb inflation without worrying so much that a drop in job vacancies due to an economic slowdown will cause unemployment to jump dramatically...."'

https://www.philstoc...urage-to-do-so/



 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 12 June 2022 - 06:23 PM

Rally Fails As Recession Risks Rise Technical Composite

The technical overbought/sold gauge comprises several price indicators (RSI, Williams %R, etc.), measured using “weekly” closing price data. Readings above “80” are considered overbought, and below “20” are oversold. The current reading is 13.54 out of a possible 100.

Technical-Gauge-061022.png

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 12 June 2022 - 08:02 PM

I may be trading during all of tonight! 

 

Maybe, I will just leave one or two lots from a NQ SHORT DAYTRADE, and go to bed by 11pm....



#5 K Wave

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Posted 12 June 2022 - 08:15 PM

MBS apparently went no bid on Friday...

Interesting read from long-term player...

https://notoriousrob...-no-bid-on-mbs/

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 12 June 2022 - 08:47 PM

Could be -300 tomorrow

 

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#7 dTraderB

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Posted 12 June 2022 - 08:48 PM

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

Could be -300 tomorrow

 

McClellanOsc_1319.gif



#8 K Wave

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Posted 12 June 2022 - 09:03 PM

Continuous crude right at that huge 116 pivot overnight here... this could be for all the marbles...

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 K Wave

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Posted 13 June 2022 - 01:15 AM

And there goes the JP 30 yr....

 

How much longer until BOJ loses control of the 10.......

 

jp30.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#10 brucekeller

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Posted 13 June 2022 - 03:50 AM

looks like my QQQ and SPY targets of 280 and 380 got reached. Possible double bottom from May. Hopefully they can stay at those level into open so I can snag some deals. Was looking for a nice fear based bottom.  If we get good volume too that would be awesome.