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#11 pdx5

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Posted 15 June 2022 - 03:14 PM

Yes watch earnings and inflation numbers next month.

Mortgage rates already near 6.5% is a red flag.

Historically that is not high, but.....house prices are way more inflated than when mortgage was 8%.

Affordability for buying a house has deteriorated very fast.

 

My daughter  bought a house for $740k but has 30 year fixed at 2.75%

No way in hell she can  afford $640k at 6.5% mortgage.


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#12 redfoliage2

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Posted 15 June 2022 - 03:42 PM

House prices are related more to building materials cost and labor cost than else, unless there is a fundamental problem like subprime crisis in 2008.  The current banking system is quite healthy.  Rates up a little but still historically low .....................


Edited by redfoliage2, 15 June 2022 - 03:45 PM.


#13 fib_1618

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Posted 15 June 2022 - 05:33 PM

House prices are related more to building materials cost and labor cost than else, unless there is a fundamental problem like subprime crisis in 2008.  The current banking system is quite healthy.  Rates up a little but still historically low .....................

 

Shaking my head in astonishment to this way of thinking...it's like looking the other way for the last 5 years.

 

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#14 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 15 June 2022 - 06:21 PM

So here is the deal..  With lumber going down and industrial materials going down, when gas prices also start to drop home building should pick up to increase supply since profits for the home builders should come back.    This should fill the gap for awhile for those who have the money to purchase of be able to finance a house..    For many others, buying a nice home will be difficult...



#15 redfoliage2

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Posted 15 June 2022 - 07:07 PM

The recent down gaps are likely to be filled before the EOQ............................


Edited by redfoliage2, 15 June 2022 - 07:07 PM.


#16 fib_1618

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Posted 16 June 2022 - 02:00 AM

The recent down gaps are likely to be filled before the EOQ............................

 

 

Maybe both...maybe one...maybe none....still a falling knife.

 

NASDAQ Open 10 TRIN is currently "overbought" at .79, but the NYSE Open 10 TRIN is still deeply "oversold" at 1.46.

 

And now you have 2nd quarter OPEX thrown into the mix with a 76% chance of another 3/4% rate increase due for late July.

 

<Shrug>

 

Fib


Edited by fib_1618, 16 June 2022 - 02:01 AM.

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#17 fib_1618

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Posted 16 June 2022 - 02:06 AM

 

 

Falling knives abound.

 

Fib

 

wait until earnings season, when projections get taken down. Only  couple weeks away

 

That's baked in, all that matters at this point is the price of crude, IMHO.

 

Well, and as you're probably aware, the Energy Sector advance/decline line continues to make new reaction highs on a weekly basis.

 

So I wouldn't be looking for anything more than a snapback to or toward the breakout level of $115 before the all time highs will be challenged.

 

Fib


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#18 redfoliage2

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Posted 16 June 2022 - 07:32 AM

Overnight index futures hurt by Swiss National Bank rate hiking by 50 BPs ..........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 16 June 2022 - 07:32 AM.


#19 redfoliage2

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Posted 17 June 2022 - 12:22 PM

It looks that buying programs running again after a pause yesterday..................


Edited by redfoliage2, 17 June 2022 - 12:30 PM.


#20 redfoliage2

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Posted 17 June 2022 - 12:33 PM

It looks that buying programs running again after a pause yesterday..................

Are bears still looking for SPX 3500?