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BEAR MARKET starts to end TODAY??? Appears to be so.. but it is still along haul


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#11 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 17 June 2022 - 05:45 PM

Well I'm looking at a variety of Industrial Materials and they have been waning somewhat over the last 3 to 4 months..   So I am not really worried about the Bear at the moment..  Inflation is high but it is primarily due to not the previous quarter but what happened in the 3 quarters proceeding..     Oil was lower today, so I will be watching that more closely going forward...



#12 K Wave

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Posted 17 June 2022 - 09:47 PM

Stupid question - was it a bear market in 2020 when we dropped 35% vs now dropping 24%?

Had covid not come along, we would not have had that big of a dip...it would have been mostly sideways consolidation before the final blowoff, and looked A LOT more like 1929 final run up than it does because of the dip...

 

But as it it stands, I liken the covid dip to the 1998 dip in Nasdaq.

 

Either of those 2 times were terrible times to long most stocks for years to come.


Edited by K Wave, 17 June 2022 - 09:49 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#13 K Wave

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Posted 17 June 2022 - 10:00 PM

This is what a FULLY COOKED bubble looks like.

 

It aint coming back, and is only going A  LOT lower.

 

So, if SPX semi-surrogate Berkeshire is FULLY COOKED, what are the odds S&P goes to new highs any time soon?

 

And by the way, these bubble pops "usually" at a minimum hit the 200 week MA on the way down on the initial popping drop.

 

So until BRK does that (which could be next week), I would be real careful about proclaiming a big swing bottom...

 

Today almost felt like they were just barely holding the market up for opex premium decay before they let it finish the drop next week...

See what happens next week...

 

brk.png


Edited by K Wave, 17 June 2022 - 10:03 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#14 K Wave

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Posted 17 June 2022 - 10:17 PM

When you compare the monthly charts of Dow 29 and current BRK chart, it is very hard NOT to see the similarities.

 

From the formation pre-explosion, right down the the absolute values on the scale laugh.png

 

And again, take out the big artificial covid dip, and final run would likely have been real similar as well.

 

I any event, this looks serious, and potentially long lasting...

 

Dow 29

 

29.png

 

BRK

 

brk.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#15 CLK

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Posted 17 June 2022 - 11:11 PM

When you compare the monthly charts of Dow 29 and current BRK chart, it is very hard NOT to see the similarities.
 
From the formation pre-explosion, right down the the absolute values on the scale :lol:
 
And again, take out the big artificial covid dip, and final run would likely have been real similar as well.
 
I any event, this looks serious, and potentially long lasting...
 
Dow 29
 
29.png
 
BRK
 
brk.png

I think you are 100% right,
not many see this setup, I
saw it in the charts last week
and started taking positions in leap puts, the Berkeshire chart is further confirmation for what I noticed in the Dow chart. I thought
maybe it would only take 1.5 years to complete the crash this time instead of 3 years back then, not sure now, may have to go further out in leap puts.
So, it looks by your chart that the first wave low happens at the Covid
lows before the big counter bounce,
is that what you expect?

Edited by CLK, 17 June 2022 - 11:15 PM.


#16 CLK

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Posted 17 June 2022 - 11:27 PM

I think the 09 lows won't hold,
5000 Dow, 400 SPX.

#17 K Wave

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Posted 17 June 2022 - 11:51 PM

 

When you compare the monthly charts of Dow 29 and current BRK chart, it is very hard NOT to see the similarities.
 
From the formation pre-explosion, right down the the absolute values on the scale laugh.png
 
And again, take out the big artificial covid dip, and final run would likely have been real similar as well.
 
I any event, this looks serious, and potentially long lasting...
 
Dow 29
 

 
BRK
 
 

I think you are 100% right,
not many see this setup, I
saw it in the charts last week
and started taking positions in leap puts, the Berkeshire chart is further confirmation for what I noticed in the Dow chart. I thought
maybe it would only take 1.5 years to complete the crash this time instead of 3 years back then, not sure now, may have to go further out in leap puts.
So, it looks by your chart that the first wave low happens at the Covid
lows before the big counter bounce,
is that what you expect?

 

yes, first low between 200-240 (daily 900 at 240, but could see panic overshoot), then back up towards 270-280 for the BIG SHORT (or wherever 200 day MA is at that time)

 

Here is the daily 29 to give an idea of a typical rebound rally after the initial drop low.

The thing I am worried about though is that this could could actually be worse than 29 due to the extreme craziness of the ponzi scheme, and could see NFLX type action on the whole market...scary to even think about that possibility...

 

But for now, looking for low soon and then we see how counter trend rally turns out.

 

29.png

 

 

Worst case scenario "The Netflix, Straight to the 200 month MA"

 

nflx.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#18 K Wave

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Posted 18 June 2022 - 08:37 AM

Bitcoin under 20K and the monthly log chart says Bear still JUST GETTING STARTED


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#19 CLK

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Posted 18 June 2022 - 09:18 AM

Bitcoin under 20K and the monthly log chart says Bear still JUST GETTING STARTED



Looking for 3-4k bounce area,
then eventually nearly full reset
to $100, or something close.

#20 CLK

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Posted 18 June 2022 - 01:42 PM

Bitcoin might test 10k
before Tuesday at this rate.