According to my risk summation system, the day this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Tuesday June 21st. The window which stretches from noon on Thursday the 23rd till Friday morning did get quite a few votes, just not enough to be classed a risk window, but there is something there worth keeping an eye on.
Last week the Tuesday risk window tagged a low that just couldn't hold, so it was a dud. The Friday risk window also appears to have tagged a low, but the action during the risk window on Tuesday the 21st will determine whether it too was premature.
That Brent June 8th turn that I projected using the trend line intersection is starting to look important. The selling was so fierce last Friday that some sort of bounce might be due. The three big gaps in the hourly chart above are also screaming to be filled, so maybe energy will benefit from a broad market rally to fill them.
I believe we get two May housing sales numbers this coming week which might just show housing falling off a cliff. The FED wolf huffing and puffing to cool inflation is also going to blow down the housing market which has been super fuelled by FED funny money for years. If the numbers are as bad as I suspect, the US may already be in the grips of a recession. High prices are bad, but high prices when you loose your job is a lot worse. If I'm right, I expect the FED to panic later this summer when the 2Q GDP number is released. If negative, a recession has already started (assuming the 1Q number is not revised to be positive). A plague, a war, inflation and now a recession, what kind of unholy Biblical mess are we living through? All we need now are locusts and the picture will be complete.
Regards,
Douglas
