156 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

This has been a much better week than I expected with classic retracing, support, rallying - at least 3 times, and now coiling for THE BIG MOVE. 

 

Most likely, this will be UP, with first target 3780, 3840, and then all the way TO ES 4250 TO 4300; PHIL ALSO THINKS SO.... SEE HIS CHART BELOW

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

Was trying to add this to an existing post but it said I do not have permission to EDIT that post!  LOL

 

This has been a much better week than I expected with classic retracing, support, rallying - at least 3 times, and now coiling for THE BIG MOVE. 

 

Most likely, this will be UP, with first target 3780, 3840, and then all the way TO ES 4250 TO 4300; PHIL ALSO THINKS SO.... SEE HIS CHART BELOW. 

But, honestly, this market has to be traded from day to day, drill down hour to hour, even lower time frames, and no forecast can handle the the recent behavior.  

 

The swings this week were almost perfect for my plan: extract as much as I can this week and close all positions or leave a bit.  The gain this week has been 3.55% so far -- that's enough & more than I thought possible so I closed all positions except:

-- 27 UVXY SEP PUTS

 

- 40 TLT CALLS   ( I wanted to keep at least 50 but the gains this week were better than expected) 

 

- 500 INDA

 

- 400 XLF 

 

I will set alerts and trade accordingly but I hope not to trade regularly while away from the market -- except if there is a major geopolitical event or anything that creates unusual market swings.  I will close ALL UVXY PUTS if it trades below 11 & open a new UVXY CALL position below 10 -- BEFORE the reverse split. 

 

My best 6-months trading profits ever, a great run, time to take a break, R&R, hopefully be back by July 11th but will try to enjoy a longer vacation and also spend a week or so in the business. 

 

I will also be taking a week or two off in late August, then come back for the best trading period of the year: Sep to December! 

 

 

 

https://www.philstoc...ay-back-to-4000

[dTraderB]

ADAM MANCINI also thinks so -- BIG SQUEEZE UP if ES trades above 3800 and any retracement does not violate it at the close of that day

 

But, I will look on from afar, with UVXY PUTS, TLT CALLS, INDA, XLF  holdings and take profits, and also start new UVXY CALL position ...  any maybe open new QQQ & SPY PUT positions if alerts triggered.  

 

 

Don’t trust the stock-market bounce until S&P 500 is back above 3,800: analysts

 

Published: June 23, 2022 at 2:13 p.m. ET

By 

William Watts Follow

 

8

Close above key resistance could trigger ‘violent’ squeeze higher: Essaye

 

“Now, whether the market is poised to fall another 10% from this new resistance level (which would be down towards the 3,400 area) remains to be seen and a squeezy leg higher is still a very good possibility,” Essaye said. “But bottom line, markets have a habit of repeating themselves, and so far this year, the S&P 500 has failed at ’round numbers’ likely due to the impact of derivatives traders, a minimum of four times.”

That leaves 3,800 as critical near-term tipping point to watch, he said, as a break above could trigger a “potentially violent” squeeze higher, “while another failure would mean new lows are all but certain,” Essaye said.

Technical analyst Andrew Adams, in a Wednesday note for Saut Strategy, described the market as taking “baby steps to try to find a bottom here,” but noted a close above the 3,800 level would provide some comfort.

Pointing to the chart below, Adams said there was technical justification for the S&P 500 bouncing where it did on Friday, providing at least some preliminary indications that a potential low was struck. Follow-through to the upside is necessary in the days ahead, he wrote, with the first hurdle at 3,800 and a test of the “gap” on the chart between 3,838 and 3,900.

 

https://www.marketwa...36?siteid=nwhpm

[dTraderB]

Sure, ES 3200 quite possible in the September/October crashy period

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Barchart

@Barchart

·

18m

 

Societe Generale suggests the S&P 500 Index may fall at least another 24% by year-end in order to reach a bottom. That is based on studying post-crisis market valuations beginning roughly 150 years ago.

 

But, BEFORE THAT, expect a rollicking rally:

JP Morgan estimates that traders have the largest stockpile of cash in roughly a decade. Cash is apparently NOT trash.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Barchart

@Barchart

·

18m

 

Societe Generale suggests the S&P 500 Index may fall at least another 24% by year-end in order to reach a bottom. That is based on studying post-crisis market valuations beginning roughly 150 years ago.

 

 

 

 

 

Barchart

@Barchart

·

18m

 

Societe Generale suggests the S&P 500 Index may fall at least another 24% by year-end in order to reach a bottom. That is based on studying post-crisis market valuations beginning roughly 150 years ago.

[12SPX]

Slow start today with late tennis last night lol!!  Yesterday was out and about again doing things so was short the market, then long the market going into the close for a total of 48 points but again doesn't count unless I post it here.  Was easy identifiable trading as grind grind grind continues and likely will continue today.  By the looks of it the play is still long as the market remains directionless so far as there are a lot of gaps higher to fill.  Put prices are holding their values to, oil is flat but the 10-year may be bottoming so I don't think volatility will end.  Starting a short build here at 3850....

[12SPX]

Shoulda stuck to a long lol!!  Average short now 3865....

[12SPX]

average short 3872....

[12SPX]

Taking profits on my sold July 3500 puts from last week with a $30.25 profit, still holding my 3200 and 3000 puts.  Starting to sell calls at the 4100 level....

[dTraderB]

closed all uvxy PUTS. 

[12SPX]

Added a bit more to bring my average to even out my short at 3875.  Have to do some errands and tennis so I'll let you know how it goes in the end....