79 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Such a wide range reflects the uncertain, troubled, apprehensive, and volatile few months. 

Persistent inflation presents problems that are beyond this FED's capabilities, especially with the delay & timidity of this FED, and the supply chain/War problems. 

 

I still think the LOW for 2022 will be during the traditional September/October bearish period but in the current 

global environment anything is possible. 

 

Not active now, want to continue enjoying my vacation, Limit orders filled last week, more orders placed. 

 

Will hold all TLT CALLS, continue to build a UVXY PUT position, and also SPY & QQQ CALLS when market declines. 

 

The FED looks a bit too indecisive and is actually admitting a recession is difficult to avoid. Someone tell the FED that the recession started at least a month ago and is in progress...

 

"Apart from the pain on Main Street and potential political problems ahead of the mid-term elections, the divergence makes it more difficult for the Fed to effectively communicate its thinking and strategy to the public and markets alike.

For investors, this raises the risk of misreading the Fed and mispricing its reaction function, potentially triggering a wave of distortion and volatility across markets."

https://www.reuters....tep-2022-06-30/

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

3h

 

Holiday Session update #ES_F: Great follow through here off the 3800 backtest this morning, confirming Friday's breakout. Real test though begins when volume returns fully tomorrow. 3850-60 remains target/dip zone to setup 3900. Bulls want to continue holding 3800

[dTraderB]

Rally off Friday's LOW may continue ... 

 

[dTraderB]

@hmeisler

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  53.5%
•  

  DOWN

  46.5%

3,508 votes·Final results

[dTraderB]

Could be a wild 4 days, and then earnings reports ....

 

 US June jobs report, Fed and ECB minutes

[dTraderB]

He called the bottom, will it hold?

 

alling VIX Spells BIG Trouble For The Bears

Tom Bowley |  July 01, 2022 at 07:47 PM

 

If there's one thing that a bear market - secular or cyclical - feeds on, it's fear. The further the drop, the bigger the spike we see in the Volatility Index ($VIX). From the CBOE.com website, the VIX "measures the level of expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index over the next 30 days that is implied in the bid/ask quotations of S&P options. Thus, the VIX is a forward-looking measure..." So let's be clear about this. The VIX does NOT measure what's happening now or what just happened last week. Instead, it looks forward to determine expected volatility. High volatility is generally associated with falling equity prices and low volatility typically accompanies rising equity prices.

As fear dissipates, expected volatility drops, and bear markets end. That's the historical formula. Let's start off by looking back to the financial crisis in 2008 and how the spiking VIX unfolded:

The VIX topped in October 2008 and though the S&P 500 hit two lower price points, the bear market ran out of sellers as fear came tumbling down in late 2008 and into the first quarter of 2009.

During the market turbulence in 2014-2016, we saw a somewhat similar pattern:

Q4 2018 was a very short cyclical bear market (less than 3 months), as was the pandemic-led selling in March 2020 (4 weeks), so there really wasn't much time to evaluate the VIX at various low points, but currently we're seeing a similar pattern in the cyclical bear market of 2022:

But the action on the VIX was really strange this week. The S&P 500 saw selling pressure once again, yet the VIX finished very close to a 3-week low. Check out this 1-month 30-minute chart:

https://stockcharts....rouble-795.html

[dTraderB]

A good collection of charts:

 

https://chartstorm.s...tm_medium=email

[12SPX]

Always great information d thanks!!  I can explain the difference though as I've said all year, this is a grind grind grind market as we adjust to deflating the everything bubble.  We have a way to go before were going to see the big spike in the Vix and a real bottom in this market.  We have grinded our way down and were now in the stage of a rally starting before the real volatility will kick in again likely in the fall.  Always love this super long weekend Friday had Canada day where sadly truedeau wasn't taken out to make it a real day of celebration and independence day down here where again biden wasn't taken out lol!!!  The important thing though was that my long from 3770 was taken out overnight at my stop of 3820 for a nice 50 point profit to start the week and I'm surprised to see futures down this morning but nonetheless starting a new long build once again at 3775.  With the 10-year this low I'll be shocked if we don't rally a little here...

[12SPX]

By the way, still think the best charts are from David Larew who now only posts them at Stockcharts.com as he quit twitter.  Always loved his commentary but at the least we can still look at his charts!!! 

[12SPX]

And just like that, average long of 3768!!