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The bear market is over.


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 20 July 2022 - 02:25 PM

The bear market is over.*

In modern markets, the S&P 500 has never lost ground over the following year when advancing volume was 87% or more of total volume for 2 out of 3 days coming off a 52-week low. It has a perfect track record. **

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/...7727745/photo/1

* Of course, this doesn't preclude short-term losses. Of course, I can't predict the future. Of course, this time is different. Of course, it would be great to have a larger sample size. ** Beware anything that seems "perfect."


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#2 12SPX

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Posted 20 July 2022 - 02:27 PM

And now that everyone knows about it, it will be broken lol!! 



#3 GDA

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Posted 20 July 2022 - 07:18 PM

 

The bear market is over.*

In modern markets, the S&P 500 has never lost ground over the following year when advancing volume was 87% or more of total volume for 2 out of 3 days coming off a 52-week low. It has a perfect track record. **

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/...7727745/photo/1

* Of course, this doesn't preclude short-term losses. Of course, I can't predict the future. Of course, this time is different. Of course, it would be great to have a larger sample size. ** Beware anything that seems "perfect."

 

That works only in hindsight, once you know that the 52-week low is in place.



#4 redfoliage2

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Posted 20 July 2022 - 07:49 PM

A new bull market is built upon vast liquidity - are we having it now? 



#5 MikeyG

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Posted 21 July 2022 - 03:44 AM

A new bull market is built upon vast liquidity - are we having it now? 


The expectation that the Fed is going to need to a 100 basis points is subsiding. The CRB is clearly coming down. The Fed should raise maybe another 75 basis points on this cycle and stop or risk of over doing it.

#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 21 July 2022 - 12:17 PM

In the next 6 to 12 months we should see liquidity further shrinking and the growth of corporate earnings down - no fundamental elements to support a new bull market.  It's just a wishful thinking or hyping that the bear market is over.  Right now we are just seeing a correction in a bear market that will continue ............................


Edited by redfoliage2, 21 July 2022 - 12:20 PM.


#7 blustar

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Posted 21 July 2022 - 12:18 PM

I don't think the FED will raise rates after the sudden panic I see into Monday and even FED (after a rally into Tuesday). NASDAQ down 15-16%, SPX down 11-12%



#8 redfoliage2

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Posted 21 July 2022 - 12:32 PM

In the next 6 to 12 months we should see liquidity further shrinking and the growth of corporate earnings down - no fundamental elements to support a new bull market.  It's just a wishful thinking or hyping that the bear market is over.  Right now we are just seeing a correction in a bear market that will continue ............................

I see the Fed is likely to go with its plan - after bringing the rate to the target it will continue to reduce (more aggressively?) its asset balance sheet ..

https://www.federalr...ecenttrends.htm


Edited by redfoliage2, 21 July 2022 - 12:35 PM.