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Super Critical WEEK! DOWN then UP - AUGUST rally


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 04:52 PM

What a week starting today! 

 

My FF is down to flat or slightly UP ... then FACE-RIPPING RALLY after the FED announcement & Press Conference. 
 

Rally could go all the way into late AUGUST ... then new 2022 LOWS into end of September

 

All this can be blown to smithereens with one or more GEOPOLITICAL events ---even a US issue.

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 04:56 PM

I enjoyed last week's trading after a great vacation;  closed CALLS, now slightly NET SHORT

 

1 NQ HEDGE SHORT

1 ES HEDGE LONG  -- could not resist after that pullback Friday

 

12 SPY PUTS

10 QQQ PUTS 

 

38 TLT CALLS 

18 UVXY CALLS 

 

12 TESLA PUTS

XLF, INDA, a few smaller holdings



#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 05:45 PM

Everyone knows the Fed is to hike by 75 bpts, but the real deal is what the Fed will say.  Likely profit taking before the Fed .......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 24 July 2022 - 05:49 PM.


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 07:14 PM

This frenetic trading tonight has me dozing away....    will abandon this by 8:30 pm

 

McClellanOsc_1347.gif

 

Near top of reversal zone but not go below zero before rallying again

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 07:18 PM

This guy sends out some good stuff, also good posts like this one in Twitter -- I am BULLISH BONDS on IT basis, vis TLT CALLS  since TLT was 124 and started declining, hammering out a bottom, up, down, and ready to break out to new ST highs above 120 ....  click the link to view the 10-yr chart

 

No. But maybe this time?

 

https://twitter.com/...339726841360384



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 07:24 PM

That 50% Bearish Fundamentals is one of a few GOOD reasons by the markets will rally after another minor pullback
 
 
tushfacfngptiy8t4k7c_normal.png
 
 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    16.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    20.3%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    50.7%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    12.3%
1,803 votes·Final results

 

This guy sends out some good stuff, also good posts like this one in Twitter -- I am BULLISH BONDS on IT basis, vis TLT CALLS  since TLT was 124 and started declining, hammering out a bottom, up, down, and ready to break out to new ST highs above 120 ....  click the link to view the 10-yr chart

 

No. But maybe this time?

 

https://twitter.com/...339726841360384

 

 
 
 
 
 
tushfacfngptiy8t4k7c_normal.png
 
 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    16.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    20.3%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    50.7%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    12.3%
1,803 votes·Final results

Edited by dTraderB, 24 July 2022 - 07:25 PM.


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 07:27 PM

60-40 Bearish! 

Another reason for rally after minor pullback

 

 
Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    41.1%
  •  
    DOWN
    58.9%
3,019 votes·Final results

 

 

 

That 50% Bearish Fundamentals is one of a few GOOD reasons by the markets will rally after another minor pullback
 
 
tushfacfngptiy8t4k7c_normal.png
 
 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    16.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    20.3%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    50.7%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    12.3%
1,803 votes·Final results

 

This guy sends out some good stuff, also good posts like this one in Twitter -- I am BULLISH BONDS on IT basis, vis TLT CALLS  since TLT was 124 and started declining, hammering out a bottom, up, down, and ready to break out to new ST highs above 120 ....  click the link to view the 10-yr chart

 

No. But maybe this time?

 

https://twitter.com/...339726841360384

 

 
 
 
 
 
tushfacfngptiy8t4k7c_normal.png
 
 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    16.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    20.3%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    50.7%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    12.3%
1,803 votes·Final results

 



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 07:29 PM

Perfect path! 

 

Good Sunday, everyone
Market update $SPY $QQQ $IWM
Expecting the indexes to grind up higher in August after an initial pullback before the start of the 2nd leg of this bear market in September
Key resistances and targets shown in the charts


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 07:36 PM

RECESSION ALREADY in progress .... markets bottom early in MILD RECESSIONS, this will be mild. BUT, the recovery will be slow, boring, maybe more painful than a MILD RECESSION should be.  Oil should drop below 70 & NAT GAS below 6 by the time the recession ends. 

The bigger problems are the persistent CHINA COVID slowdown and the dreadful European WINTER gas supply problem. So, 2 or more quarters with low negative GDPs, then positive but dragged down by CHINA & EUROPE/UKRAINE situation

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
xJiR4qzL_normal.png
 
In his latest, makes a compelling case that any recession will be mild and brief… One of many factors that support his case is the consumers' ratio of liabilities to net wealth is at the lowest level in 50 years!… $SPY $QQQ $TLT $USO More: https://bit.ly/3RWpu0e


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 24 July 2022 - 07:39 PM

I also see it this way:

 

 

Jul 21, 2022 | 10:35 AM EDT DOUG KASS The Way I See It As you would note in my diary, in the last 24 hours I have taken my foot off of the accelerator a bit - by selling out a few longs - ($SNOW) , ($RH) , ($GS) - and reducing my ($SPY) long

 

 
 
 
 
 
DKiAL2yi_normal.jpg
 
 
Dougie Kass
@DougKass
·
 

Jul 21

position. The markets are now overbought (S &P oscillator at 3.28%). That said, I don't see the downside that bears see. In fact, I only see a couple percent of downside. That is the way I see it and I am a buyer on weakness, waiting for the right pitch. @tomkeene @ferrotv
 
Replying to @DougKass @tomkeene and @FerroTV

 

 

 

RECESSION ALREADY in progress .... markets bottom early in MILD RECESSIONS, this will be mild. BUT, the recovery will be slow, boring, maybe more painful than a MILD RECESSION should be.  Oil should drop below 70 & NAT GAS below 6 by the time the recession ends. 

The bigger problems are the persistent CHINA COVID slowdown and the dreadful European WINTER gas supply problem. So, 2 or more quarters with low negative GDPs, then positive but dragged down by CHINA & EUROPE/UKRAINE situation

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
xJiR4qzL_normal.png
 
In his latest, makes a compelling case that any recession will be mild and brief… One of many factors that support his case is the consumers' ratio of liabilities to net wealth is at the lowest level in 50 years!… $SPY $QQQ $TLT $USO More: https://bit.ly/3RWpu0e

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
DKiAL2yi_normal.jpg
 
 
Dougie Kass
@DougKass
·
Jul 21
position. The markets are now overbought (S &P oscillator at 3.28%). That said, I don't see the downside that bears see. In fact, I only see a couple percent of downside. That is the way I see it and I am a buyer on weakness, waiting for the right pitch. @tomkeene @ferrotv
 
Replying to @DougKass @tomkeene and @FerroTV