Deleted
Edited by redfoliage2, 27 July 2022 - 05:56 PM.
Super Critical WEEK! DOWN then UP - AUGUST rally
Started by
dTraderB
, Jul 24 2022 04:52 PM
116 replies to this topic
#62
redfoliage2
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Posted 27 July 2022 - 05:55 PM
The most important point from Powell's press conference today - no guidance on future rate hiking. The Fed could go more aggressive in rate hiking or not as aggressive as it has been, all depend on data ..........................
Fed should be done by September meeting, unless we see huge ramp in 2 year rates in the interim.
I'd expect T-bond rates to go further up later in the year as Powell reiterated today that starting in Sept. the Fed will go in full strength to reduce its balance sheet ................................
Edited by redfoliage2, 27 July 2022 - 05:56 PM.
#63
K Wave
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Posted 27 July 2022 - 06:04 PM
The most important point from Powell's press conference today - no guidance on future rate hiking. The Fed could go more aggressive in rate hiking or not as aggressive as it has been, all depend on data ..........................
Fed should be done by September meeting, unless we see huge ramp in 2 year rates in the interim.
I'd expect T-bond rates to go further up later in the year as Powell reiterated today that starting in Sept. the Fed will go in full strength to reduce its balance sheet ................................
Spoiler alert: They can't without crashing things.
Late September into October should be "interesting"...
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#64
dTraderB
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Posted 27 July 2022 - 08:33 PM
VARNEY
Watched CNBC from their inception until a few years ago, then switched to BOOMBERG
BLOOMBERG is best -- they are on 24/7, global reporting...
I like Fox business especially Varney and Charles Payne!!
#65
dTraderB
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Posted 27 July 2022 - 08:36 PM
Looks like they pulled the plug late today...
but my FF is rally to ES 4250 or maybe it gets only to 4200 -- not smoothly but volatile markets on this rally, and then DOWN again, possibly to new 2022 lows
Done!
more than 100 ES points rally in less than 2 days ...
that's great!
Holding 44 TLT CALLS
Will buy UVXY CALLS
will close all LONGS except hold ALL TLT CALLS
Will buy UVXY PUTS
Decent chance this holds until the Mega Cap reports tomorrow after close, and the we see down wave for a bit...
160ish on AAPL before they pull the rug???
#66
dTraderB
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Posted 27 July 2022 - 08:42 PM
I missed out on the last 25 ES points but that's OK because it dropped, then dropped more with META miss, and now trading at 4016
Traders are bullish, markets up as most interpreted POWELL as dovish -- I did not, but BULLS enjoying a rally based on relief sentiment...
Will daytrade for rest of this month, open new PUT positions, starting from above ES 4090... holding TLT CALLS and new UVXY CALL position
Above assume market rallies to, or above, ES 4200
Most likely, market will rally and then drop tomorrow, repeat Friday, but will finish the week above ES 4017 where it is now.
If this rally fails then .... the drop will be swift and far down below ....
Done!
more than 100 ES points rally in less than 2 days ...
that's great!
Holding 44 TLT CALLS
Will buy UVXY CALLS
will close all LONGS except hold ALL TLT CALLS
Will buy UVXY PUTS
#67
dTraderB
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Posted 27 July 2022 - 08:43 PM
USD/YEN dropped during POWEL Presser and now dropping again as BOJ (japan) reiterate more easing .... will Japan ever raise rates? LOL
DOILLAR TOP may be in place for at least a few weeks....
#68
dTraderB
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Posted 27 July 2022 - 08:48 PM
YES, THIS IS THE SUMMER RALLY IN PROGRESS! Maybe not as strong as others in previous years but it is all we can afford in these difficult times, OK?
Enjoy it... because it is the dreaded September and then OCTOBER!
#69
dTraderB
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Posted 27 July 2022 - 08:50 PM
YEAH, we are heading to that rare +300 level as I wrote yesterday. May not reach there but then a pullback, and this can stay above zero for the duration of this
SUMMER RALLY.
up 90 today
and SUMMATION INDEX up 200
https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/
Nice rally, good profits, but I have only a relatively small LONG position --- will add more on any decline
or, I will close on any rally, wind up JULY trading with RISK OFF for rest of month, 7 consecutive profitable months
AUGUST is usually a bad month for me but I will try to keep it GREEN
This below could spike up to near max levels +300 and the drop
#70
dTraderB
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Posted 27 July 2022 - 08:52 PM
Back at ground 0: Since Friday, 3955 has been an unbreakable magnet & yesterday we sold to 3920 support & now right back. #ES_F waiting on 2pm FOMC to break Plan today: As long as we stay above 3945, looking to 3975, 4k, breakout to 4040. 3945 fails we see 3895 *must* hold today
Quote Tweet
Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
·
Jul 26
Today, I was looking for dip in #ES_F to 3920 1st lvl down, and we hit & bounced 16 points. This was the backtest of the 50 day moving average, which cleared last week.Key level 3950-55 now resistance/target & bulls need to reclaim to set a low. 3895 must hold if we keep dipping twitter.com/AdamMancini4/s…
