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How dangerous bear markets are


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#1 andr99

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Posted 28 July 2022 - 02:50 PM

Not easy the ''sell the bounce'' strategy. The rallies are usually violent because of the short covering and catching the exact top of the bounce is very difficult. 


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#2 CLK

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Posted 28 July 2022 - 02:59 PM

Ever thought about waiting for breadth to turn down first?

#3 andr99

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Posted 28 July 2022 - 03:47 PM

no, but if someone looking at the breadth could kindly tell me when the spx tops out, I would be very gratefull for that............  


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#4 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 28 July 2022 - 03:53 PM

I've thought about it....    During a downturn but have learned from past mistakes.   I don't wait for breath to turn down but take a look at a variety of signals..   Many here have already sold the bounce at the 50-day MA which we blew though of $SPX..



#5 K Wave

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Posted 28 July 2022 - 04:07 PM

Me, I watch the leaders, and wait for them to stall out.

 

So far. not there yet....but that could perhaps change by tomorrow or next day.

 

It is pretty giddy out there after hours...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#6 GDA

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Posted 28 July 2022 - 04:51 PM

Take the guesswork out of it



#7 Douglas

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 02:13 AM

GDA, interesting site.  Have you plotted the NYSE indicators shown at the site over a period of time to see if their time in the green and red zones lead, are coincident or lag turns in the market?  Any insight you might have would be appreciated.  Thanks.

 

Douglas



#8 andr99

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 03:09 AM

thank you guys......my problem was that although I' ve got a clear target for the spx, I hadn' t one for my own domestic index, the ftsemibtel and no clear target for the group of stocks on my monitor which belong to that index. Now I think I have solved the problem. I' ve solved it looking at a specific pattern that is developing on everyone of them, index included. It was difficult to find it out, but now it's pretty clear how things will evolve.    


Edited by andr99, 29 July 2022 - 03:10 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#9 GDA

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 12:04 PM

GDA, interesting site.  Have you plotted the NYSE indicators shown at the site over a period of time to see if their time in the green and red zones lead, are coincident or lag turns in the market?  Any insight you might have would be appreciated.  Thanks.

 

Douglas

The site has been up and running for many years. Market breadth is usually a leading or coincidental indicator, although in secular bull markets the indices may keep grinding higher while weekly market breadth resets from overbought to oversold. The best/strongest directional moves occur when both daily and weekly readings are in sync.



#10 GDA

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Posted 30 July 2022 - 01:26 PM

GDA, interesting site.  Have you plotted the NYSE indicators shown at the site over a period of time to see if their time in the green and red zones lead, are coincident or lag turns in the market?  Any insight you might have would be appreciated.  Thanks.

 

Douglas

With regard to the gauges, although by definition they are a coincidental indicator, they can also provide additional insight. You rarely see more than two-three very high/low readings in a row, as the market needs to catch its breadth. A neutral/low reading at a new high is usually an early sign of reversal. A cluster of very high readings after a prolonged drop is often a sign of reversal in sentiment. The last time this happened was mid June.