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Lower Low to Come


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#1 redfoliage2

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 12:47 PM

At this juncture the bear market bounce is about to end and today I got a sell signal with 95% probability for NDX and SPX.  I expect eventually a lower low in Sept. - Oct.  The market will unavoidably have serious liquidity problems as Powell indicated at the recent press conference the Fed will go in full strength to reduce its balance sheet regardless inflation or not.  In reality this bear market is far from over ........................ 


Edited by redfoliage2, 29 July 2022 - 12:52 PM.


#2 trioderob

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 01:23 PM

it will be over when nobody is calling it or believes it is a "bear market bounce "

 

not a day sooner ,,,,,,,



#3 MikeyG

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 02:22 PM

The only lower low I am confident about right now is oil. Its targeting below 90.

#4 pdx5

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 02:41 PM

This rally is making life difficult for the FED. The markets are laughing at their piddly small rate increases to tackle 9.1% inflation.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#5 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 02:59 PM

It looks like I'm getting a strong medium term indicators and am looking for topping action...    I currently don't see a top happening here.   Usually at a top and downtrend one sees the $DJIA performs better than $SPX...  This is reversing that $SPX is starting to perform just as well...



#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 03:11 PM

One of the signs for a top is while indices are going up the market breadth (volume based) turning down, that has been happening since yesterday ...................


Edited by redfoliage2, 29 July 2022 - 03:15 PM.


#7 redfoliage2

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 03:30 PM

The only lower low I am confident about right now is oil. Its targeting below 90.

When the Fed pulls liquidity plug as Powell indicated during the recent conference that the Fed has a plan to do it in full strength, everything will go down.  A bull market is nurtured by liquidity.  Without it this is just a bear market bounce .........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 29 July 2022 - 03:36 PM.


#8 slupert

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 03:46 PM

It looks like I'm getting a strong medium term indicators and am looking for topping action...    I currently don't see a top happening here.   Usually at a top and downtrend one sees the $DJIA performs better than $SPX...  This is reversing that $SPX is starting to perform just as well...

https://schrts.co/XZIpNQFK



#9 MikeyG

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 06:35 PM

This rally is making life difficult for the FED. The markets are laughing at their piddly small rate increases to tackle 9.1% inflation.


Disagree completely. They are right on target as inflation is decreasing substantially per the CRB.

#10 pdx5

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Posted 29 July 2022 - 08:40 PM

 

This rally is making life difficult for the FED. The markets are laughing at their piddly small rate increases to tackle 9.1% inflation.


Disagree completely. They are right on target as inflation is decreasing substantially per the CRB.

 

 

BUSINESS

  •  

Key US inflation gauge reaches 6.8% as prices keep surging

By 
Associated Press
July 29, 2022 10:30am 
 
 
Headache for Biden as Key Inflation Index Rises to 40-Year High

Edited by pdx5, 29 July 2022 - 08:43 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule