Jump to content



Photo

Update Sep.16 on SPX, cycles and scenario


  • Please log in to reply
7 replies to this topic

#1 bigbud

bigbud

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 497 posts

Posted 16 September 2022 - 04:06 PM

The 4-week cycle did get sabotaged, so the bearish scenario is ON. Do expect a bounce early next week. But careful - we are in the "crash-window" of the 7-year cycle.

 



#2 GDA

GDA

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 89 posts

Posted 16 September 2022 - 05:23 PM

Not sure what "sabotage" has to do with anything. Daily market breadth was overbought just ahead of the CPI, and it took 3 days to bring it back to oversold levels.



#3 bigbud

bigbud

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 497 posts

Posted 17 September 2022 - 02:03 AM

Sabotage is my term for a (bearish) left translated cycle
It is strong selling in the early bullish phase of a cycle, often induced by some news-event :)

The consequence in this case, is some kind of a downtrend into the next cycle low early October



#4 GDA

GDA

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 89 posts

Posted 17 September 2022 - 02:19 PM

For that to happen, you are betting on a repat of the 03.20 cycle.

That's the only time when both oversold daily and weekly internals remained oversold for an extended period of time.

Before that it happened in 2018.


Edited by GDA, 17 September 2022 - 02:26 PM.


#5 GDA

GDA

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 89 posts

Posted 17 September 2022 - 02:36 PM

Instead of the "only time" I should have said the last time.



#6 bigbud

bigbud

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 497 posts

Posted 17 September 2022 - 03:14 PM

yes, I am expecting a hard landing. We had those in 2008, 2001 and in the 1970s



#7 bigbud

bigbud

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 497 posts

Posted 18 September 2022 - 03:21 AM

A video on stock market cycles, seasonal variation, and the underlying reason/driving force


Edited by bigbud, 18 September 2022 - 03:21 AM.


#8 bigbud

bigbud

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 497 posts

Posted 23 September 2022 - 11:52 AM