The 4-week cycle did get sabotaged, so the bearish scenario is ON. Do expect a bounce early next week. But careful - we are in the "crash-window" of the 7-year cycle.
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Posted 16 September 2022 - 05:23 PM
Not sure what "sabotage" has to do with anything. Daily market breadth was overbought just ahead of the CPI, and it took 3 days to bring it back to oversold levels.
Posted 17 September 2022 - 02:03 AM
Sabotage is my term for a (bearish) left translated cycle
It is strong selling in the early bullish phase of a cycle, often induced by some news-event
The consequence in this case, is some kind of a downtrend into the next cycle low early October
Posted 17 September 2022 - 02:19 PM
For that to happen, you are betting on a repat of the 03.20 cycle.
That's the only time when both oversold daily and weekly internals remained oversold for an extended period of time.
Before that it happened in 2018.
Edited by GDA, 17 September 2022 - 02:26 PM.
Posted 17 September 2022 - 02:36 PM
Instead of the "only time" I should have said the last time.