9 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

The freakishly similar anlog continues...almost to the day at same time of year...

 

Dow Bottom in mid-June, then pullback and launch bear rally late June. Apple Same

Dow top August 16, Apple Aug 17

 

Dow, after breakout over 200 day fails, 200 day starts to turn down. Apple Same

 

2nd half of September was VERY Ugly in 37.

 

Perhaps after small bounce into Fed, Buh Bye??

Again, Apple now in super dangerous place, and big gap drop could also come at any time, or it could just continue the Texas 2 step all the way down like 37.

 

Dow 37

 

 

Apple

 

[pdx5]

One tallking head on CNBC made a point today that our of the majot tech stocks, Apple is the only one with actual product and reasonable P/E.

[K Wave]

One tallking head on CNBC made a point today that our of the majot tech stocks, Apple is the only one with actual product and reasonable P/E.

I guess...if you consider a nearly 25 PE "reasonable" for a 2% revenue growth stock, that is more likely than not to warn between now and earnings.

 

FDX is not going to be a 1 off this earnings period.....

 

Edited by K Wave, 16 September 2022 - 08:38 PM.

[pdx5]

That graphic clearly shows customers are not jumping on every new model of iPhone. Clearly dimninishing returns.

However iphones are clearly very popular worldwide. And Apple has lots of cash on hand. Why not? Those iphones are expensive.

My cheap Android phone (Xfinity paid me to take that phone haha) does everything I need a phonefor and much more.

 

If stock market goes down lets say 10% in next few months, my guess is Apple will go down with it.

[slupert]

Chart of 1962 should be the right oneb We were off by ahead by a week  that 's all. Keep in mind the Cuban Missile Crisis was in Oct.

[slupert]

That graphic clearly shows customers are not jumping on every new model of iPhone. Clearly dimninishing returns.

However iphones are clearly very popular worldwide. And Apple has lots of cash on hand. Why not? Those iphones are expensive.

My cheap Android phone (Xfinity paid me to take that phone haha) does everything I need a phonefor and much more.

 

If stock market goes down lets say 10% in next few months, my guess is Apple will go down with it.

single didit growth for next two years not for me however, some are thinkibg the growth rate for the next 5yrs. for the broad market will be the same.

[slupert]

 

One tallking head on CNBC made a point today that our of the majot tech stocks, Apple is the only one with actual product and reasonable P/E.

I guess...if you consider a nearly 25 PE "reasonable" for a 2% revenue growth stock, that is more likely than not to warn between now and earnings.

 

FDX is not going to be a 1 off this earnings period.....

 

 

I haven't heard one person on TV admit these are the hardest comps the market has faced so far, Yet they are.

[K Wave]

Chart of 1962 should be the right oneb We were off by ahead by a week  that 's all. Keep in mind the Cuban Missile Crisis was in Oct.

If Rusty breaks that huge 1780 pivot, it is gonna get ugly there...whether SPX 3k ugly (my potential October target), remains to be seen.

 

But if so, MUCH more like 37 than 62...

 

62 DID NOT go to a new low after the June low, and was also WELL below the 900 day when it bottomed. SP still above 900 at this point, although perhaps not for a whole lot longer.

In 62, the entire bear wipeout happened into June, and the October low was just a retest.

 

Current market action much more resembles 37 than 62.

 

and again...FDX will not be a 1 off...if some of the Mega (getting less so by the day) Caps get hit..........

 

Time will tell....

 

At any rate, once RUT breaks 1780, where the market bottoms in a panic washout in October likely the place to give Intermediate term longs a go...although certainly possible that after the October Bounce, market gets a lower low 1st Qtr 2023.

[K Wave]

Looks like one of most accurate prognosticators of the twists and turns of the unfolding Bear Market is on board with 3000ish on S&P in October as well.


If so, mid-september to mid-October is going to be one Wild Ride...


https://m.investing....t-432SI-2893778

[pdx5]

On where to buy S&P 500, Hartnett says nibble at SPX 3600, bite at 3300, gorge at 3000.

That matches perfectly what is brewing in my pinhead.