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Not A Good Enviorment For LT Investing


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#1 MikeyG

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 10:32 AM

The market risk premium, the difference between the earnings yield on stocks and the risk free rate (10 year yield) is the lowest since 2017.

 

2017 we were headed into a less regularity, tax and pro growth environment. Big difference now.

 

MRP is down to 2.16%, not a great environment to invest in stocks right now.


Edited by MikeyG, 20 September 2022 - 10:32 AM.


#2 beta

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 11:51 AM

Not to mention that SPX, NDX, USO, $gold and BTC are all trading well below their 50 & 200 DMAs.

 

Bought back my NDX puts plus UVXY.  VIX looks ready to roll. 


Edited by beta, 20 September 2022 - 11:52 AM.

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#3 beta

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 12:45 PM

Simple and clear explanation of the Buffet indicator, from Lance Roberts:

 

https://www.zerohedg...are-going-crash


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#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 20 September 2022 - 03:36 PM

Not A Good Enviorment For LT Investing

Where there is one roach...

Ford Selloff Deepens After Warning of $1 Billion in Extra Costs

Ford Motor Co. fell the most in over a decade after saying inflation is pushing supplier costs $1 billion higher than expected in the current quarter, joining the chorus of major corporations warning about challenges rippling through the economy.

 

Mark Zuckerberg’s $71 Billion Wealth Wipeout Puts Focus on Meta’s Woes

Even in a rough year for tech billionaires everywhere, the Meta CEO’s losses stand out.

His fortune has been cut in half and then some, dropping by $71 billion so far this year, the most among the ultra-rich tracked by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. At $55.9 billion, his net worth ranks 20th among global billionaires, his lowest spot since 2014 and behind three Waltons and two members of the Koch family.

Tycoon's Wild $3 Billion Gamble on ‘China's LVMH’ Crashes A Chinese LVMH wannabe spent billions buying up global luxury fashion brands, but its deal spree is now unraveling.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 20 September 2022 - 03:39 PM.


#5 Rogerdodger

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Posted 21 September 2022 - 01:21 PM

How do you spell "Drunken Sailor"?

 

Fed Raises Interest Rates by .75 for 3rd Straight Meeting...

INFLATION MESS DEEPENS...

EASY MONEY SPIRALS OUT OF CONTROL...

Treasury yield surges...

META, GOOGLE Cutting Staff. Just Don't Mention Layoffs...

UN chief: We are in great peril...

'Colossal global dysfunction'...

 

What will we do with a drunken sailor?
Early in the morning!

Shave his belly with a rusty razor

Put him in a long boat till his sober

Stick him in a scupper with a hosepipe bottom

Put him in the bed with the captains daughter

That's what we do with a drunken sailor

~Song by The Irish Rovers~


Edited by Rogerdodger, 21 September 2022 - 01:27 PM.


#6 MikeyG

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Posted 21 September 2022 - 09:53 PM

FOMC said they are targeting mid 4s on Fed Funds. That really makes stocks unattractive at current levels. In addition Powell said getting that getting inflation under control is paramount over a hard or soft landing.

#7 pdx5

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 09:26 AM

Define "long term". Because it means different to different people.

 

For day traders it is one week.

 

For position traders it is 6 months.

 

For traders avoiding short term capital gain tax rates it is 12 months or more.


Edited by pdx5, 22 September 2022 - 09:27 AM.

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