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as long as stocks go on rising


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#1 andr99

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Posted 25 October 2022 - 03:05 PM

no one believes the trend has changed. It's psychology because when those who are behind the stock market, manipulating it, go on making it drop 2% or 3% daily for a few months, retail investors' psychology will remain conditioned for a long long time, so that when the bottom is in, who will believe it is ? No one. At that point the stock market starts to rise little by little every day and every time it takes a dip, amateurs will think the bear is resuming and will take a short position. I was myself like that a few years ago, that's why I know very well how it works out.      


Edited by andr99, 25 October 2022 - 03:08 PM.

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#2 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 26 October 2022 - 09:00 AM

Agreed...    Big Drop in tech this morning for instance alludes to everyone will sell.   Given the fact the talking heads are mentioning 100% chance of recession next year, everything is bleak...   I fully believe that we are bottoming and should be on the way up because of constant bashing of the market.



#3 pdx5

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Posted 26 October 2022 - 09:37 AM

I usually ignore the talking heads. But I never ignore what the FED is doing with interest rates.

If 10 year bond starts paying more than 5%, I will be a heavy buyer, along with many others. 

Now that is real competition for the investment buck going to either stocks or bonds.


Edited by pdx5, 26 October 2022 - 09:37 AM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#4 andr99

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Posted 26 October 2022 - 10:18 AM

Joe six pack is now asking himself if his stock market short position he took at the bottom is maybe wrong, but then he starts hoping that the bearish trend may be resumed soon. Hey it went on for almost one year, may it be over right when he enters short ? He is trapped and he hasn't yet completely realized it. He will realize it when his loss is very big.   


Edited by andr99, 26 October 2022 - 10:20 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#5 andr99

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Posted 26 October 2022 - 10:34 AM

Obviously market manipulators do everything they can to drive the poor Joe to madness. Two hours ago nasdaq in big red, now going to green. Poor Joe, he doesn't understand anything at this point.  


Edited by andr99, 26 October 2022 - 10:36 AM.

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#6 andr99

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Posted 26 October 2022 - 01:01 PM

one down up oscillation was not enough, two are better. Poor Joe has to be confused even more


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#7 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 26 October 2022 - 05:05 PM

From the rhetoric everyone is convinced we will have a recession next year, especially with the negative yield curve..   New home prices went hire as Sales went down and new home supply went higher..  I do think we are seeing demand shrink as product prices rise.   We have yet to get competition back in the market place to lower prices..



#8 pdx5

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Posted 27 October 2022 - 02:05 PM

I would place probability of a recession in 2023 at 75%.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule