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RALLY Potential top ES 4100-50, down again


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 30 October 2022 - 04:41 PM

Bear-killer rally too far too fast but still could reach as far as ES 4100-50 on this leg up. 
FED may not resume HAWKISH talk until after the midterms -- usually they stay quiet during these political events. 

However they may sound HAWKISH but be DOVISH in the near future, especially now that they will 

most likely cut to 50bps in December. 

 

50bps this week also?

Does not seem so ...

 

more later



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 30 October 2022 - 07:31 PM

USD/YEN short trade setting up again, now at 148.069

Will open new short above 148.8 and add if it rallies above 149.4, 149.9, 150.65



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 30 October 2022 - 08:19 PM

Exciting night in Brazil and also in Chinese markets

 

Building SHORT position in HANG SENG and A50 -- both opened down

 

Want to gradually add to create BIG short positions in both



#4 K Wave

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Posted 31 October 2022 - 07:10 AM

Yeah, with the little time I had to check out charts this weekend, this all looks way too much like early 2001, with Dow poppin' and Naz withering on the vine.

 

Was not a good time to be long stocks other than for short while on Dow, and Naz just got pumelled once that Dow rally faded.

 

Going to be in scalp mode until Fed, and then we see.

 

But as long as Apple above 145 and Rusty above 1800, bulls still have a shot a something bigger here.

That was a major support area down there around 1650 on Rusty, and bears could not punch through it.

For bull case, Rusty obviously needs to continue to hold 1800, and then  needs to build some kind of base over 200 day MA.

But if 1800 does not hold for some reason, decent shot bears give it another go, and should they get through on the next attempt, could be an ugly next few years, like 2001-2003

 

With Apple jamming itself right up into the rolling over 3 hour last week, bulls are definitely going have to prove themselves worthy.

Apple getting a foothold over 160 could be first real positive sign for bulls.

Back under 150 is first warning, and under 145 again could be the kill shot.


Edited by K Wave, 31 October 2022 - 07:11 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5 K Wave

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Posted 31 October 2022 - 07:17 AM


 

50bps this week also?

 

Not unless 2yr rate takes a big dive in next 2 days...currently headed back in wrong direction near 4.5...

3.25 still leaves fed with some catchin' up to do.

My guess is decision is between 75 and 100, and they choose 75.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2022 - 07:22 AM

Last week, 3925-30 was my target in #ES_F and we hit and pulled back for some needed cool-off before continuation. This week is all about FOMC Plan today: Cool-off ideal. 3875-80, 3855 supports. Bulls need > 3900 to restart the leg to 3925, 3955-65. 3855 fails, we sell to 3820
Quote Tweet
 
 
 
 
 
 
ZVBuToeP_mini.jpg
 
Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
·
Oct 28
The next leg of the new Oct 13 bull run wasting no time and now coming into 3900 next target after now a 135 point run from last nights 3765 back-test. 3930 next, which remains my final target, but #ES_F may lack energy for it today. Lock in part gains 3875, 3855 now supports twitter.com/AdamMancini4/s…


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2022 - 07:23 AM

EU & CHINA will drag down the rest of the global economy

 

ECB'S DE COS: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DARKENED RECENTLY.
 
 


#8 12SPX

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Posted 31 October 2022 - 07:35 AM

Well no surprise this morning that the market is pulling back a little.  When you look at bonds you can see why anyhow as it seems as they go the market follows.  Little above 4% so were down.  Likely go as d is talking about and k's opinion on interest rates.  Canada back pedalled a little this time around with only a .50% hike but I think the Fed will stick with their .75 as they are behind a little.  I had figured last time around that it was going to be the last for awhile and still can't believe they don't want to wait and see how these hikes play out but guess we'll see, no one really knows.  Market will likely be pretty quiet going into it though with lots of grinding going on.  Still have my short on at 3890 and we'll see how the day goes because if we can pullback enough I may even go long as this is a great trading market right now as volatility continues...



#9 12SPX

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Posted 31 October 2022 - 07:42 AM

Hmmmmmm well what the heck might as well put a stop on with this fall at 3889 for the cash open and restart from there...



#10 12SPX

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Posted 31 October 2022 - 07:56 AM

Out for a 1 point profit, but good to start on a clean slate on this last day of the month.  Would prefer to be on the long side anyhow so hopefully get a decent buy in here at the open!!!