According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday November 7th, Wednesday the 9th and Friday the 11th, maybe another "W" or "M" shaped week will result.
Last week the risk summation system identified a big cloud of risk stretching from Wednesday November 2nd thru Friday the 4th which I posited might see wild swings up & down. I think that the moves of about 1350 points from Wednesday's high to Thursdays low and another almost 900 points back up from the Thursday low up to the Friday high qualifies as pretty wild swings.
The 18-day cycle which I showed last week topped in the first few days of this past week and at least for now appears to still be working. The next top for this cycle is ideally on Monday November 28th +/- a day.
After the Fed presser this past Wednesday I was left wondering if Powell even read the press release document issued before he spoke. The other possibility is that the Fed is trying to sow as much confusion as possible to keep both bulls and bears off balance giving an advantage to neither, sort of a Fed head fake to use a sports analogy.
Confusion also reigns on this side of the pond, where the day after the Fed conflab we witnessed the truly bizarre BOE statement that longer dated interest rates which are currently less than half the rate of inflation here, were too high, just minutes after they raised the overnight lending rate.
Whether these central banks are intentionally trying to engage in a campaign of misdirection to keep the bond and stock markets off balance is not immediately apparent, but what is obvious is that they appear to be making this crap up on the fly and don't seem to have any firm conviction from one minute to the next as to what they're going to do or say next. Given this state of confusion, the wild swings in the stock market this past week make complete sense.
This coming Tuesday make sure to go out and vote early and vote often. The risk window on Wednesday is probably well placed given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. The inflation figures and jobless claims numbers due out this coming Thursday morning probably should make Thursday a risk window too. Maybe the risk window Friday is when the direction driven by those numbers exhausts itself and reverses.