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Risk Windows for the Week of 14 November & Inflatuation


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 12 November 2022 - 08:11 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday November 15th and Friday the 18th.  Neither signal is all that strong, so it will be interesting to see if they amount to much.

 

Last week I said the three risk windows might mean an "M" or "W" shaped week and sure enough it was an "M", albeit a bit of a warped upsloping one.  I was also right in speculating that CPI Thursday should be considered a risk window even though the system didn't identify it.  That was one humdinger of a rally.  

 

UoWeLa5.png

 

This week Stan Harley noted that the 18-day cycle which I purloined from him will top on Wednesday the 23rd instead of the following Monday the 28th that I showed in my post last week.  Given it's Stan's discovery, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the cycle's resolution, but for the time being I'm going to keep an eye on both days until it's obvious he's right.

 

yV4QiKj.png

 

The rally kept my E-wave count shown below alive, so the break down alternate that I showed in last week's risk window post goes back in its box for the time being. Currently in the count the "a" wave of a three part "B" wave higher is developing. 

 

xmWr4J0.png

 

This "B" wave could reach as far as new highs in the DJIA depending on how the public's infatuation with the lower inflation numbers, or inflatuation, develops.  This self-delusion should keep the champagne flowing until the awful reality sets in that the funny money bred inflation beast has not yet been vanquished, and it becomes apparent that Powell has tapered, pivoted, paused or whatever the heck he's doing, too soon.   

 

For a wildly more optimistic E-Wave view take a look at Glenn Neely's most recent Youtube post which projects much higher stock prices -   Glenn Neely: Critical Juncture for S&P and GOLD (Recorded Sept. 30, 2022) - YouTube .  Given Glenn's vastly greater E-Wave knowledge and experience and given the general rule that the Good Lord looks after drunks, fools and the United States of America no matter what stupid things they do, there is every chance that his optimism is warranted.  If inflation has been tamed by the recent Fed action and the October "A" wave low holds into mid-2023, I too, pessimist that I am, will put on rose colored glasses and embrace the bliss. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

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#2 slupert

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 01:58 PM

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday November 15th and Friday the 18th.  Neither signal is all that strong, so it will be interesting to see if they amount to much.

 

Last week I said the three risk windows might mean an "M" or "W" shaped week and sure enough it was an "M", albeit a bit of a warped upsloping one.  I was also right in speculating that CPI Thursday should be considered a risk window even though the system didn't identify it.  That was one humdinger of a rally.  

 

UoWeLa5.png

 

This week Stan Harley noted that the 18-day cycle which I purloined from him will top on Wednesday the 23rd instead of the following Monday the 28th that I showed in my post last week.  Given it's Stan's discovery, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the cycle's resolution, but for the time being I'm going to keep an eye on both days until it's obvious he's right.

 

yV4QiKj.png

 

The rally kept my E-wave count shown below alive, so the break down alternate that I showed in last week's risk window post goes back in its box for the time being. Currently in the count the "a" wave of a three part "B" wave higher is developing. 

 

xmWr4J0.png

 

This "B" wave could reach as far as new highs in the DJIA depending on how the public's infatuation with the lower inflation numbers, or inflatuation, develops.  This self-delusion should keep the champagne flowing until the awful reality sets in that the funny money bred inflation beast has not yet been vanquished, and it becomes apparent that Powell has tapered, pivoted, paused or whatever the heck he's doing, too soon.   

 

For a wildly more optimistic E-Wave view take a look at Glenn Neely's most recent Youtube post which projects much higher stock prices -   Glenn Neely: Critical Juncture for S&P and GOLD (Recorded Sept. 30, 2022) - YouTube .  Given Glenn's vastly greater E-Wave knowledge and experience and given the general rule that the Good Lord looks after drunks, fools and the United States of America no matter what stupid things they do, there is every chance that his optimism is warranted.  If inflation has been tamed by the recent Fed action and the October "A" wave low holds into mid-2023, I too, pessimist that I am, will put on rose colored glasses and embrace the bliss. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

.  

 

What are your time frames for B and C. I was thinking the ow for the year is in the 1st quarter.

 

 



#3 Douglas

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 04:06 PM

Slupert, once the "b" wave of the current "B" wave appears to be complete, I would assume the "c" of the "B" would be either equal in time to the "a" wave or equal to the time it took "a" +"b" to form.  If what I show below concerning the final low occurring as late as 4Q next year is correct, in order for the large "C" wave down to have time to develop, the "B" would need to probably finish up sometime before spring of 2023. 

 

A 7-year cycle that I track which I show crudely below points to an important low somewhere between this October 2022 and next October 2023.  That's about as accurate as this long cycle gets.  

 

 Q8PIpwZ.png

 

Similarly, the 4-year cycle that I track shown below also has a bottom this year but could stretch into 2023 given its past behaviour.  

 

smJzHnO.png

 

These long cycles are only horseshoes and hand grenades accurate.  In the above plots I have ignored the 2020 low which I believe was not business cycle related.  If I'm wrong (likely given my luck), and it should have been included, the 4-year cycle should make a low somewhere from the end of 2023 to the end of 2024.  The 7-year cycle would project a later low somewhere near 2007.    

 

My current E-Wave count that I show above assumes the final low for the cycles above will probably occur late next year, but I also believe the 4- and 7-year cycles' resolution will largely depend on what Vlad and Jerome do over the next few months which is hard to predict given neither appear to have a good handle on what they are doing and seem to be just making it up as they go along.  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 pdx5

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Posted 15 November 2022 - 12:07 AM

$20k college bribe and death of Roe enabled Biden's party to crash the red wave. 2023 should reward those with cash & patience.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule