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BULLISH Seasonality -- beware of PULLBACKs!


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 13 November 2022 - 05:37 PM

Well, unless there is a major geopolitical event(s) the BULLS finally have the edge at the beginning of this BULLISH period (November to January)

However, this is not a normal year, and so one should expect abnormal behavior.  Beware of punishing pullbacks and if there is major geopolitical event then there is a very high probability of a new 2022 LOW.

 

But, one should trade WITH THE MARKET and be ready to close or reverse positions. That is my modus operandi for the rest of the year

 

I am holding a small QQQ PUT position. Will add VERY SLOWLY and may take profits whenever I feel I should - no rules, not target, just trying to add a few % to my net account return for 2022

 

I will continue to trade TLT CALLS - currently holding a BIG position, as well as UVXY CALLS - holding a small position...

 

It has been the best year in all 36 trading the markets & I am not about to ruin that. 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 13 November 2022 - 05:42 PM

Back above 200 

I think it stays above zero for at least another 2 to 3 days in this OPEX week  

 

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#3 dTraderB

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Posted 13 November 2022 - 05:47 PM

Dollar will continue to fall; looking for a rebound at about 105

 

Bonds should continue to rally for at least another week 

 

 

Bond survey on the other hand continuing its apparent uptrend, long-term basing pattern, hard lurch to the most bullish in 2yrs... is this "it" for bonds?

 

Bond survey on the other hand continuing its apparent uptrend, long-term basing pattern, hard lurch to the most bullish in 2yrs... is this "it" for bonds?


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 13 November 2022 - 05:53 PM

China stealth reopening ....

My FF is at least a 10% rally in Asian markets by end of 2022

 

 

 

Dollar will continue to fall; looking for a rebound at about 105

 

Bonds should continue to rally for at least another week 

 

 

Bond survey on the other hand continuing its apparent uptrend, long-term basing pattern, hard lurch to the most bullish in 2yrs... is this "it" for bonds?

 

Bond survey on the other hand continuing its apparent uptrend, long-term basing pattern, hard lurch to the most bullish in 2yrs... is this "it" for bonds?

 



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 13 November 2022 - 06:46 PM

So, this is the reason for a small drop in ES??

 

 
 
 
 
 
lJ7F6JVO_normal.jpg
 
Fed governor Christopher Waller on the October CPI report: "The market seemed to get waaaa-aaaay out in front.... I just cannot stress this is one data point." "We've still got a ways to go."
 
 
 
 
 
lJ7F6JVO_normal.jpg
 
Fed governor Christopher Waller on the October CPI report: "The market seemed to get waaaa-aaaay out in front.... I just cannot stress this is one data point." "We've still got a ways to go."


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 05:31 AM

Not Good for China markets:
Cathy Yuan Zhang (@CathyYuanZhang) tweeted at 5:38 am on Mon, Nov 14, 2022:
Local authority in #Beijing said Mon Covid outbreaks continue to widen and risks of community transmission are rising.
#Shanghai Disneyland is temporarily closed again on Mon to comply with Covid prevention measures.

#7 redfoliage2

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 08:14 AM

Too many call holders that will be flushed out before the market can rally further.  Let's see if this will be done in the next two days.....................


Edited by redfoliage2, 14 November 2022 - 08:18 AM.


#8 12SPX

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 08:22 AM

Good for you d, has been a great year for trading,  I know I've done amazing also in both my option sells and trend trading!!  Back and  forth yesterday afternoon and night 3 times off of my original 3989 short picking up about 6 points profit and going into the cash open with a short build at 3990 as bonds are back in play and as red notes calls have to many people in them looking for that fast gain and even more importantly prices are way to high so I'm sure this week will see lots of volatility or as I like to say grind grind grind lol!!!  



#9 12SPX

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 08:58 AM

Adjusting to a profit stop of 3985 taken out for a 5 point profit.  Wait till the cash open or start selling again at the 3990 level...



#10 12SPX

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 09:06 AM

And there we are starting a long build at 3990...