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Risk Windows for Week of 21st of November & a Turkeyless Thursday


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 19 November 2022 - 09:38 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday November 21st and Friday the 25th.  The risk window sum for this coming Monday the 21st is one of the highest I've seen for quite some time.  

 

Last week's Tuesday the 15th risk window caught a big rally, a big sell-off and the high for the week, quite a risky day.  The jury is still out on the Friday the 18th risk window.  This coming Monday's trading will determine its fate.  Since this coming Monday is also a risk window, it is possible that Friday to Monday is a single larger risk window.   

wi1mpsY.png

 

Stan Harley's 18 day cycle is set to turn either this coming Wednesday or the following Monday the 28th, so both days bear watching.  Also cycle guru Raj Thijm has identified Monday the 21st as an important risk date.  Given the very high risk summation value this coming Monday, it certainly appears that something important might just be afoot next week.  

 

Another rusty nail in next week's coffin is my short-term E-Wave count which is expecting the end any day now for the first leg up "a" wave of a larger up "B" wave bear market correction.  My target for this "b" wave down is somewhere between the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement of wave "a" up.  The E-Wave four of previous degree blue line and a nice gap fill green line also in this zone make it more attractive as a target. 

 

  txGFtwV.png

 

Please think of me next week when you're stuffing yourselves with turkey with all the trimmings which I will unfortunately not be since it's not a UK tradition.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

 



#2 fib_1618

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Posted 20 November 2022 - 04:18 AM

 Given the very high risk summation value this coming Monday, it certainly appears that something important might just be afoot next week. 

 

  Please think of me next week when you're stuffing yourselves with turkey with all the trimmings which I will unfortunately not be since it's not a UK tradition. 

 

The price forecast from the McClellan Summation Index back in late October was for the rally to stall out around November OPEX. And although the momentum of the move will likely keep prices buoyant into the 1st week of December, the BETS chart shown below is looking rather ominous near term.

 

Thanks for the weekly updates, and I do believe that they do sell turkeys in the U.K.!

 

Fib

 

bets111822.png
 


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#3 Douglas

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Posted 20 November 2022 - 06:16 AM

fib_1618, finding a turkey is no problem.  Getting my English wife interested in roasting one with all the trimmings is a different matter.  Roast lamb, no problem.  Besides, it's not Thanksgiving if you're not huddled with the whole extended family around the table and later slouched on the sofa watching football (oval pigskin one not round one).

 

A 72-week cycle that I swiped from Tom Hougaard shown below topped this past week.  It's had a few good hits in the past, so it's another thing pointing to the potential for downside action in the next couple of weeks.  

 

qJkiaBC.png

 

I couldn't get the link you included to open, can you post a picture?  Thanks for responding.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 slupert

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Posted 20 November 2022 - 10:19 AM

Historically a very good week for the market. Market is on low volume automatic pilot, easy to jack futures up in the morning.If they can use this to jump the creek it could be a geat week. Caveat , i would expect some post op ex dummping. and possible bear raids in the low volume. I wonder if Rodgerdodger has the historical data.



#5 fib_1618

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Posted 20 November 2022 - 11:56 AM

 I couldn't get the link you included to open, can you post a picture?  Thanks for responding.

 

 

Sorry about that...I keep forgetting about the security protocols here regarding charts: http://www.technical.../bets111822.png

 

And please, do call me fib or Dave...fib_1618 sounds way too formal! laugh.png

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

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Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#6 K Wave

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Posted 21 November 2022 - 01:04 PM

Just listened to Hadik...he thinks one last blast on the Dow 34,400 or so into early December

 

If we hold here today, and start moving up, he could be right...


Edited by K Wave, 21 November 2022 - 01:04 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 Douglas

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Posted 23 November 2022 - 01:35 PM

IF the red "a" wave shown in my crude E-Wave count in the first post in this thread tops this week, the following is a potential count for its internals using SPY.  The target for the subsequent red "b" wave which should also form in three parts is roughly somewhere between 370 and 380. 

 

t7lLiep.png

 

Regards & Happy Thanksgiving, 

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 23 November 2022 - 01:37 PM.


#8 Douglas

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Posted 23 November 2022 - 02:32 PM

Please ignore count immediately above. Please see correction below, although this one probably won't be correct for long either.  

 

Y1dRDBd.png

 

 

Regards,

Douglas