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Seasonally bullish week BUT Bears ready to pounce!


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 20 November 2022 - 07:32 PM

It should be a much more BULLISH THANKSGIVING week but several bearish factors have surfaced - e.g. the Chinese OPENING UP may be reversed as COVID surges there, and will US consumers still be able to splurge ....as forecasted. 

 

MY FF is a bullish shortened week and then markets dip for a week a so and then recover for the end of year rally .

 

As I write that line I wonder if even that partially bullish is still expecting too much from the BULLS ... I do not think so if CHINA has to abandon their OPENING-UP process. 

 

I am flat except for TLT CALLS, UVXY CALLS. and a few smaller holdings. 

 

Will be extremely cautious for the rest of November and also in December, unless market melts up or down. 

 

China reporting 2 COVID deaths. Yeah. Right. Sure. 

 

How the F can you trust any of their data when a BILLION plus people has the highest COVID rate in the world but just 2 deaths? 

 

 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 20 November 2022 - 07:36 PM

Apparently, ODTE options trading is the culprit for recent insane intraday market behavior

 

I have been reading about it  and I am getting more and more interested ... could start trading it 

 

BTW, ODTE is the acronym for ZERO DAYS TO EXPIRY - especially the new SPX which now expire every DAY!

 

Anyone trading this can let us know their experience

 

This ODTE insanity is responsible for wild movements, extreme volatility, unusual VIX values, and apparently losses in the SPX trading community. 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 20 November 2022 - 07:43 PM

Inflation & the Economy may decline more than many expect...

this is bullish? 

 

The put/call ratio hit the highest level since 1997.

 

this is amazing:

Container shipping costs are down nearly 80% from a year ago.

 

also trucking rates etc are down, has the recession ALREADY BEGIN?

The put/call ratio hit the highest level since 1997.



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 20 November 2022 - 07:50 PM

 
1/ From JPM, very interesting take on ODTE "trading 0D options cost up to 3x as much as trading 1D options. Yet, it appears that the end users of 0D profit from directional, high-frequency trading strategies even after incorporating the wider bid-ask spread"

Apparently, ODTE options trading is the culprit for recent insane intraday market behavior

 

I have been reading about it  and I am getting more and more interested ... could start trading it 

 

BTW, ODTE is the acronym for ZERO DAYS TO EXPIRY - especially the new SPX which now expire every DAY!

 

Anyone trading this can let us know their experience

 

This ODTE insanity is responsible for wild movements, extreme volatility, unusual VIX values, and apparently losses in the SPX trading community. 



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 20 November 2022 - 07:54 PM

Unreal, unsustainable, seems very similar to the DOT COM bubble era

 

 
Uber has no cars. Airbnb has no real estate. Crypto exchanges have no crypto. This is the new economy.


#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 21 November 2022 - 10:01 AM

Apparently, ODTE options trading is the culprit for recent insane intraday market behavior

 

I have been reading about it  and I am getting more and more interested ... could start trading it 

 

BTW, ODTE is the acronym for ZERO DAYS TO EXPIRY - especially the new SPX which now expire every DAY!

 

Anyone trading this can let us know their experience

 

This ODTE insanity is responsible for wild movements, extreme volatility, unusual VIX values, and apparently losses in the SPX trading community. 

ZERO DAYS TO EXPIRY is just like playing a slot machine in a casino in terms of winning.  Unless you are an insider and know something going to happen on the day the chance to win is very small,  But the chance for the money you put will be gone quickly as it has almost no intrinsic value, just  time premium durable for only a few hours.  It's just for insider traders to make huge profit  ..........


Edited by redfoliage2, 21 November 2022 - 10:07 AM.


#7 redfoliage2

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Posted 21 November 2022 - 10:13 AM

 

Apparently, ODTE options trading is the culprit for recent insane intraday market behavior

 

I have been reading about it  and I am getting more and more interested ... could start trading it 

 

BTW, ODTE is the acronym for ZERO DAYS TO EXPIRY - especially the new SPX which now expire every DAY!

 

Anyone trading this can let us know their experience

 

This ODTE insanity is responsible for wild movements, extreme volatility, unusual VIX values, and apparently losses in the SPX trading community. 

ZERO DAYS TO EXPIRY is just like playing a slot machine in a casino in terms of winning.  Unless you are an insider and know something going to happen on the day the chance to win is very small,  But the chance for the money you put will be gone quickly as it has almost no intrinsic value, just  time premium durable for only a few hours.  It's just for insider traders to make huge profit  ..........

 

Sure it's a money making machine for market makers................


Edited by redfoliage2, 21 November 2022 - 10:15 AM.


#8 K Wave

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Posted 21 November 2022 - 11:48 AM

5 min resistance doing its job so far on UNH as we watch paint dry here today...

 

510 the key level..


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 K Wave

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Posted 21 November 2022 - 11:49 AM

Battle for 64 transition area on XRT rages on...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#10 K Wave

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Posted 21 November 2022 - 11:54 AM

TSLA has finally reached the big daily target zone folks were laughing about back up there at 1100 area pre-split...

 

And unfortunately for bulls does not look divergent on the retest of the big line...so caution still warranted until perhaps 4 hour finds its footing momowise.

 

TSLA.png


Edited by K Wave, 21 November 2022 - 11:56 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy