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BULLISH: My 2023 FF: SPX HIGH > 4600; SPX LOW > 3575


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2023 - 05:57 PM

That is my range SPX 3575 to 4600

SPX HIGH could be greater than 4600; SPX LOW could be greater than 3575 

 

Minimum SPX HIGH is 4600

Minimum SPX LOW is 3575 

 

If there is a major geopolitical event then SPX could trade as low as 2900. 

 

Huge BOND rally 

 

CRYPTO us basically dead, similar to DOT COM bubble bursting

 

FED will stop raising rates in February; will hold rates steady, will NOT CUT, will be dovish. 

 

 

 



#2 GDA

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 02:08 AM

The decennial cycle give a range of 3400 and 4600.



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 06:23 AM

WSJ: A new year. A fresh start. After one of the worst years in some time for Wall Street, 2023 is launching with a more positive tone. Futures are pointing higher, bond yields are edging lower and the dollar is strengthening. But beware of first impressions. Today is also the one-year anniversary of the S&P 500 hitting its all-time closing high.

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 06:25 AM

"On Wednesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, aka JOLTS, will drop, as will the most recent Fed meetings minutes. Then, on Friday, investors will chew over the December jobs report to see whether Fed policy makers have had any success in cooling the hot labor market. Read live markets updates"

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 06:31 AM

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) tweeted at 2:28 am on Tue, Jan 03, 2023:
Falling inflation combined with a recession that gets the Fed/Govt to pivot causing markets to soar is the overwhelming consensus view in 2023, not contrarian.

This is the 2023 bull story because cheap money matters more than the economy's prospects.

#6 dTraderB

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 06:33 AM

BARRON'S
Stocks may seem determined to begin 2023 in upbeat fashion after their worst year since 2008, but theres plenty of doom and gloom predicted.

There was no happy new year message from the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva. In fact, she said 2023 will be tougher than last year, with one third of the world economy expected to enter recession, on CBSs Face the Nation.

In a sliver of good news, she said the U.S. is the most resilient economy and may avoid a recession, citing the strong labor market. The big banks dont share that optimism, though, with more than two-thirds of economists at 23 large financial institutions predicting a U.S. recession, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Even if a U.S. recession is avoided due to labor market strength, as Georgieva notes, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer in 2023, posing further problems for the economy and the stock market.

Investors wont have to wait long to find out if the strength of the jobs market is holding up. The first trading week of the year will be punctuated by employment data, including Decembers jobs report Friday as well as job openings and private payrolls data earlier in the week.

Minutes from the Feds December meeting are also due to be released Wednesday, offering more clues as to the future path of its aggressive rate-hiking.

While U.S. stocks look set to rise on the first trading day of the year, the early 2023 optimism may not last the week.

Callum Keown

#7 dTraderB

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 08:01 AM

GERMAN CPI appears to be bullish

#8 12SPX

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 09:04 AM

This year will be more depressing than last as the housing market starts to fall in the blow up of the everything bubble but I love your range d.  Would be surprised if we even get to 4500 but you never know maybe in the fall.  Key point of this year will be that the grind will continue until the market sets up for another decent correction maybe to your lower level.  By my numbers there is still a possibility of a 45-50% haircut from the all time high so under 3000 is possible even though very hard to believe.  Because no one really knows and that was revealed last year I'll just continue to play it expiration cycle to expiration cycle selling lots of premium there and continue to play with my new favourite, selling weekly options and do some trend trading with wider plays in between!!  Most important thing is that it should be another great year of trading so lets all respect one another's opinions, unless you don't agree with mine bahahaha!!! 



#9 12SPX

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 09:06 AM

Was long from 3844 yesterday btw but my profit stop was taken out 3865 so I was never able to get back in and now were in the middle so waiting for the cash open to see where to go here!! 



#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 09:10 AM

Likely an ST bottom here after the month-long end of year tax selling in December 2022 ......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 03 January 2023 - 09:19 AM.