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Advantage BULLS: FED slight TILT? ES 4250 target


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 08 January 2023 - 05:43 PM

Well, this came a few hours ago from FED Governor ... a slight tilt that could send this market up another 3 to 5 % this week 

Target is ES 4250 or higher for this leg up. 

USUAL CAVEAT: any major geopolitical event will derail this rally.. 

 

 
Retiring Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says he is hopeful milder inflation data would allow for the Fed to return to raising interest rates in more traditional 25-basis-point increments beginning with its next meeting Interview transcript here:

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 08 January 2023 - 05:50 PM

Good first week to start as I built the biggest LONG position since about 3 months ago 

 

First week in 2023 I decided to be RISK ON especially as ES was below the 200ma 

 

I also kept only 1 ES and 1 NQ HEDGE SHORT after closing 1 each near the lows on Friday

 

Will hold off from adding any more HEDGE SHORT unless ES trades above 3900

 

My TESLA high-risk position has only 5 CALLS 

I decided against adding more on Friday but decided to start a new ARKK position with 10 CALLS 

 

Holding BIG CALL in TLT, SPY, QQQ, AAPL, AMZN and smaller quantities in others 

Also LONGS in banks, IWM,  AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL

 

Still trading RISK ON this week but may take some profits ... I prefer to hold but markets still too volatile to trade the normal "BUY & HOLD" strategy for more than a few weeks 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 08 January 2023 - 06:44 PM

Good Summary & Commentary from YARDENI
The Economic Week Ahead Jan. 9-13
Dr Ed Yardeni

The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season starts this week with the big money center banks. They are unlikely to surprise investors. Their managements may once again warn, as they have in the past, that a consumer-led recession is likely this year. That's old news, and the markets aren't likely to react to it. Besides, if the banks expect a recession, why haven't they been adding much to their loan-loss reserves?

November's consumer credit report (Mon) is likely to show that revolving credit rose to a new record high. That might heighten fears that consumers are getting stretched. December's consumer inflation expectations, compiled by the FRBNY, should show further moderation, confirming that inflation is easing. Of course, December's CPI (Thur) will be the big inflation release of the week. We are expecting a downside surprise thanks to rapidly falling gasoline and natural gas prices and deflating durable goods prices, led by used cars.

December's NFIB survey of small business owners (Tue) will also provide some insights into how many of them are raising their selling prices and expect to be doing so in the next few months.

This week, more Fed officials will undoubtedly agree with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic spin on Friday's job report. In a CNBC interview, he said that he still sees the federal funds rate rising above 5% and staying their for a while. The markets may very will ignore their warnings if the CPI is lower than expected.

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 08 January 2023 - 06:46 PM


https://www.yardeniq...ek-ahead-jan-9/

Good Summary & Commentary from YARDENI
The Economic Week Ahead Jan. 9-13
Dr Ed Yardeni

The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season starts this week with the big money center banks. They are unlikely to surprise investors. Their managements may once again warn, as they have in the past, that a consumer-led recession is likely this year. That's old news, and the markets aren't likely to react to it. Besides, if the banks expect a recession, why haven't they been adding much to their loan-loss reserves?

November's consumer credit report (Mon) is likely to show that revolving credit rose to a new record high. That might heighten fears that consumers are getting stretched. December's consumer inflation expectations, compiled by the FRBNY, should show further moderation, confirming that inflation is easing. Of course, December's CPI (Thur) will be the big inflation release of the week. We are expecting a downside surprise thanks to rapidly falling gasoline and natural gas prices and deflating durable goods prices, led by used cars.

December's NFIB survey of small business owners (Tue) will also provide some insights into how many of them are raising their selling prices and expect to be doing so in the next few months.

This week, more Fed officials will undoubtedly agree with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic spin on Friday's job report. In a CNBC interview, he said that he still sees the federal funds rate rising above 5% and staying their for a while. The markets may very will ignore their warnings if the CPI is lower than expected.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 08 January 2023 - 06:55 PM

Up 106 on Friday. 

My FF is it rises above 250  before next leg down 

 

McClellanOsc_1463.gif



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 08 January 2023 - 07:00 PM

 
 
 
 
 
ZVBuToeP_normal.jpg
 
After 2 weeks of chop #ES_F broke out Fri, right off support of its perfect bull channel from October @ 3820 Plan next week: 3895,3870=supports. As long as they hold on the backtest, 3960-75 next up, then pullback. 3870 fails, we retest 3820; gate to 3760
 
 
 
 
 
ZVBuToeP_normal.jpg
 
Have a great weekend! After 2 weeks of chop #ES_F broke out Fri, right off support of its perfect bull channel from October @ 3820 Plan next week: 3895,3870=supports. As long as they hold on the backtest, 3960-75 next up, then pullback. 3870 fails, we retest 3820; gate to 3760


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 08 January 2023 - 07:03 PM

Significant BULLISH 60-40 polling 

 

 
Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    60.7%
  •  
    DOWN
    39.3%
4,860 votes·Final results


#8 K Wave

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 08:43 AM

Watching Apple 130 area after the open...

 

If bulls can re-establish foothold above that key level, then would be warning sign to bears.

 

But, failure at 130, and could be a last gasp, before Apple goes and takes out that 900

 

Important area right here on ton of things...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 redfoliage2

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 09:11 AM

Be aware of Powell who is to speak tomorrow, I see he is likely to slap the market in the face ..........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 09 January 2023 - 09:15 AM.


#10 12SPX

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 09:18 AM

Hmmmm, going into the cash open with an average short of 3916, was really hoping for blu to be right this time with a 100 point fall but of course reality always takes hold so not surprised to see the rally continue this morning.  We'll see how the cash open goes to add or not as another fun day begins!!  Option prices appear pretty neutral actually which I'm surprised about but the days not over yet lol!!