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The Best Announced Big Rally Ever


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 02:36 PM

The WWW is lit up with predictions that tomorrow's inflation numbers will come in way below forecast and cause a big stock market rally.  Given the fall in commodities, used cars, etc. prices that the media has been reporting the last few weeks, the good inflation numbers certainly seems likely, but why in the efficient market heck isn't the market rallying big time in front of tomorrow?  The DJIA is up 160 or so today, but that's just a cake walk.  Where's the fireworks?   If every mother's son knows it, why isn't the market acting on it now?  Too many bears still prowling around I suppose.  Well, if the blogoshere is right about tomorrow's numbers, it will be an open season blood bath for  those bears tomorrow.  Happy hunting.

 

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Douglas



#2 K Wave

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 03:06 PM

The WWW is lit up with predictions that tomorrow's inflation numbers will come in way below forecast and cause a big stock market rally.  Given the fall in commodities, used cars, etc. prices that the media has been reporting the last few weeks, the good inflation numbers certainly seems likely, but why in the efficient market heck isn't the market rallying big time in front of tomorrow?  The DJIA is up 160 or so today, but that's just a cake walk.  Where's the fireworks?   If every mother's son knows it, why isn't the market acting on it now?  Too many bears still prowling around I suppose.  Well, if the blogoshere is right about tomorrow's numbers, it will be an open season blood bath for  those bears tomorrow.  Happy hunting.

 

Regards,

Douglas

As I have been saying for months, inflation died last year.

All that matters tomorrow is the "reaction" to numbers which will obviously be coming down on YOY basis real soon. By early March, CRB will be negative YOY.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#3 blustar

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 03:50 PM

The WWW is lit up with predictions that tomorrow's inflation numbers will come in way below forecast and cause a big stock market rally.  Given the fall in commodities, used cars, etc. prices that the media has been reporting the last few weeks, the good inflation numbers certainly seems likely, but why in the efficient market heck isn't the market rallying big time in front of tomorrow?  The DJIA is up 160 or so today, but that's just a cake walk.  Where's the fireworks?   If every mother's son knows it, why isn't the market acting on it now?  Too many bears still prowling around I suppose.  Well, if the blogoshere is right about tomorrow's numbers, it will be an open season blood bath for  those bears tomorrow.  Happy hunting.

 

Regards,

Douglas

I see a big plunge into Jan 17 and 19 th  7.4%?  Astros and VIX very negative here



#4 skott

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 04:05 PM

Buffet indicator is still in the 95-96percentile of Stock market to GDP ratio. crazy overpriced. doesn't mean it can't rally short term. no one knows



#5 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 04:05 PM

What if it's fake news?  Will the market crash tomorrow?


Edited by redfoliage2, 11 January 2023 - 04:07 PM.


#6 Douglas

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 04:48 PM

The DJIA ended up almost 269 points trading all day in a series of higher highs and higher lows with a really strong green candle at the close, so maybe folks are front running tomorrow's inflation numbers a bit more than I noted above.  A little negative inflation would be very welcome on this side of the pond.  I spent more than $120 equivalent buying four burgers, french fries and beers at a little beach side cafe for lunch, pretty expensive for something pretty far from haute cuisine.  Workers of all stripes here are striking for higher pay to try to catch up to rising prices.  The wage part of the inflation equation may be the fly in the ointment tomorrow if the market takes the time to drill down before starting the rally party.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#7 pdx5

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 05:19 PM

I was itching to pull the trigger today and sell my partial longs. But I just do not want to pay short term capital gains tax.

 

The government hates me trying to advance into upper middle class. They jacked up my Medicare deduction from $165/month in 2022 to $527 month for all of 2023. And I have not even used any Medicare since age 65. Still healthy at age nearing 83 with daily treadmill and weight machine.

https://www.youtube....rts/Ffer2lIHm8o

 
Thats me doing my daily boring treadmill. But this Mozart music helps me stay inspired.
I extracted this short music clip from an 8-hour Mozart concert recording using Audacity app.  

Edited by pdx5, 11 January 2023 - 05:22 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#8 skott

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Posted 12 January 2023 - 12:12 AM

couldn't this be 1) the classic begin of the year January bounce? and 2) buy on the rumor, sell on the news?

 

Has everyone forgotten December 13th already? take a look at the day esp the premarket and the open with the less than 2 minute pre market rally on the CPI news.  QQQ rallied from 288 to 300 in those 2 minutes and then gave it all back

 

The reason the market is not rallying is maybe the amatuers are out of money. They have reduced margin. It should be interesting but it might be painful for me. you never know.

 

I'd take a look at the $VVIX too. It made the lowest low in years a few days ago and has been rebounding strongly since then. Reg VIX refused to go lower today on higher stock prices.


Edited by skott, 12 January 2023 - 12:26 AM.


#9 Douglas

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Posted 12 January 2023 - 10:03 AM

Oh well, to quote PFC Gomer Pyle, surprise, surprise, surprise, or rather not a surprise.  The inflation figures were in line with expectations, so the much heralded plunge in CPI was not to be, nor the expected big rally.  The bulls will just have to grasp for some other straw to justify bidding up which I'm quite sure is already in the works.  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#10 pdx5

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Posted 12 January 2023 - 03:38 PM

7.4% Inflation is NOT mild. Very few workers receive after tax raise of 7.4%.

MM funds are paying 4.5% BEFORE tax. That is a guaranteed loss of purchasing power.

My FF is that inflation will linger above 6% throughout Biden's term.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule