370 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) tweeted at 2:03 pm on Fri, Jan 20, 2023:
Waller: “We have made progress.”

“The FOMC’s goal in raising interest rates is to dampen demand and economic activity to support further reductions in inflation. And there is ample evidence that this is exactly what is going on in the business sector.” https://t.co/sjOSFijRRX
(https://twitter.com/...hXyZKGuxkg&s=03) 

[dTraderB]

Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) tweeted at 2:27 pm on Fri, Jan 20, 2023:
In other words, Waller sees the risk of having overtightened because inflation comes down quickly as a first-class problem.

"If I'm wrong on this, I'm going to be a happy man" because it will mean the Fed avoided some very bad-case inflation scenarios.
(https://twitter.com/...jKPgY0u4NQ&s=03) 

 

Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) tweeted at 2:03 pm on Fri, Jan 20, 2023:
Waller: “We have made progress.”

“The FOMC’s goal in raising interest rates is to dampen demand and economic activity to support further reductions in inflation. And there is ample evidence that this is exactly what is going on in the business sector.” https://t.co/sjOSFijRRX
(https://twitter.com/...hXyZKGuxkg&s=03) 

[dTraderB]

This was supposed to be the first post in this new topic:

 

Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) tweeted at 8:12 am on Sun, Jan 22, 2023:
Fed officials are preparing to slow interest-rate increases for the second straight meeting.

They could begin deliberating how much more softening in labor demand, spending and inflation they would need to see before pausing rate rises this spring. https://t.co/I2baGj3aGT
(https://twitter.com/...9c-gvDzzcA&s=03) 

[dTraderB]

The line all  is watching! SPX back at it

 

IF SPX overcomes this resistance then there will be AN EXPLOSIVE RALLY of at least 10%

 

"If I step away from historical tendencies, however, and simply look at the S&P 500 chart, the downtrend line since the beginning of 2022 is what nearly every technician is watching:

The downtrend line currently intersects at approximately 4000, depending on how you draw your trend line. In my view, that's the first critical level to clear in order to confirm the end of the bear market decline. Check out the subtle difference that we're seeing in January 2023, though. After the last 3 death crosses and bearish PPO centerline crosses, we saw selling accelerate and new lows quickly reached. We're seeing something entirely different this time. The PPO has turned back above centerline resistance in bullish fashion and we've also seen a bullish "golden cross" just a few weeks after the death cross suggested we'd head lower. What's happening? Well, I can tell you what I think is happening. We're chopping in preparation for a solid year ahead. Many are waiting for price action to confirm what's been taking place beneath the surface for months. I told our members and the entire investing public that June 2022 had the characteristics of a major market bottom and that it was time to concentrate on long positions, letting go of the bear mentality that was appropriate during the first six months of 2022. I don't think I could have been much clearer:"

https://stockcharts....bullis-302.html

[K Wave]

The line all  is watching! SPX back at it

 

IF SPX overcomes this resistance then there will be AN EXPLOSIVE RALLY of at least 10%

 

"If I step away from historical tendencies, however, and simply look at the S&P 500 chart, the downtrend line since the beginning of 2022 is what nearly every technician is watching:

The downtrend line currently intersects at approximately 4000, depending on how you draw your trend line. In my view, that's the first critical level to clear in order to confirm the end of the bear market decline. Check out the subtle difference that we're seeing in January 2023, though. After the last 3 death crosses and bearish PPO centerline crosses, we saw selling accelerate and new lows quickly reached. We're seeing something entirely different this time. The PPO has turned back above centerline resistance in bullish fashion and we've also seen a bullish "golden cross" just a few weeks after the death cross suggested we'd head lower. What's happening? Well, I can tell you what I think is happening. We're chopping in preparation for a solid year ahead. Many are waiting for price action to confirm what's been taking place beneath the surface for months. I told our members and the entire investing public that June 2022 had the characteristics of a major market bottom and that it was time to concentrate on long positions, letting go of the bear mentality that was appropriate during the first six months of 2022. I don't think I could have been much clearer:"

https://stockcharts....bullis-302.html

Yup, likely huge decision within days...

 

Fed day Feb 1 could be wild...my guess at this point is that market may have already tipped its hand by then, but could be some big fakeout moves that day before direction is confirmed.

[dTraderB]

Talking up the
US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I SEE HELPFUL SIGNS IN RECENT US INFLATION DATA.

[dTraderB]

ECB'S STOURNARAS: RATE HIKES SHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL.

Talking up the
US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I SEE HELPFUL SIGNS IN RECENT US INFLATION DATA.

[dTraderB]

GERMAN ECONOMY HAS LIKELY STAGNATED IN Q4; RECENT INDICATORS ARE BETTER THAN EXPECTED - BUNDESBANK.

ECB'S STOURNARAS: RATE HIKES SHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL.

Talking up the
US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I SEE HELPFUL SIGNS IN RECENT US INFLATION DATA.

[dTraderB]

Big earnings week

Earnings season gains serious momentum this week, with several big companies gearing up to report quarterly results. Tech, telecom, aerospace and airlines will be in focus, especially as investors seek clues about what companies are expecting this year. Heres when some of the major names set to report:

Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson, GE, Lockheed Martin, Verizon (before the bell); Microsoft (after the bell)

Wednesday: AT&T, Boeing (before the bell); Tesla, IBM (after the bell)

Thursday: Comcast, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, JetBlue (before the bell); Intel (after the bell

[dTraderB]

"CRYPTO HAS NO INTRINSIC VALUE" but its APPLICATIONS in the REAL WORLD may have.

Cryptos spreading collapse
Traditional financial institutions are cooling on crypto. Binance, the worlds biggest crypto exchange, said yesterday that one of its partners, Signature Bank, was reducing its exposure to digital assets and would only handle dollar transactions for customers of the company worth more than $100,000.

Regulators have warned banks about safety and soundness. The Fed, the F.D.I.C. and Office of the Comptroller of Currency issued a joint statement this month outlining the risks for institutions handling crypto. These included fraud, potential runs on assets and contagion.

The industrys big players are deeply entwined. The crypto lender Genesis, which says its collapse was set off by the fall of FTX, will have its first bankruptcy hearing today. Genesis froze hundreds of millions of dollars worth of assets in November that it lent out via a yield product on the crypto exchange Gemini, leaving the latters customers in the lurch and the two companies facing charges of offering a nonregistered security by the S.E.C. But even as Genesis was struggling, former executives named in the filing were trying to woo investors to a new crypto hedge fund.

Lawyers may be the only winners in crypto right now. After objections from senators, creditor representatives and the founder of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, a Delaware bankruptcy court on Friday ruled that the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell could continue to work on the case. Bankman-Fried has accused the firm of conflicts of interest based on previous work it had done for his companies.

Understandably, it can be off-putting to many to have a wealthy 92-year-old tell them what is good for their future. Im going to make an exception on the streetcar issue.
Warren Buffett, making a rare public stand on a local issue introducing a streetcar system in Omaha in the Omaha World-Herald, which he owns.