370 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

TSLA finally not going straight up...180 should be real had to crack on first go.

[dTraderB]

I think the market will be UP in January & February but very choppy and spikes up and down, more than previous years.  Markets changing so I am 

reducing duration to mainly ST trades. 

FED will keep on raising rates, sound hawkish most of the time, try to talk down inflation and the markets BUT they now risk overtightening.

 

The FED and MARKETS can adjust to be comfortable with 4% inflation and 1 to 2% GDP Growth until inflation subsides to 2% or less.

 

Markets are a bit extended now so I am near FLAT or SHORT net position but I not comfortable so I want to close most holdings this today. Started. 

 

But you do think it should be up up up right now though don't you red?  I'm with you though d market is getting scary here with the Vix falling near recent lows, calls sooooo expensive and bonds leaning higher in yield, getting way ahead of itself!! 

[redfoliage2]

 

But you do think it should be up up up right now though don't you red?  I'm with you though d market is getting scary here with the Vix falling near recent lows, calls sooooo expensive and bonds leaning higher in yield, getting way ahead of itself!! 

At this juncture I see there is not much upside left, if not an IT top right here unless the Fed changes its inflation target from 2% to 5% that is unlikely .......................

 

The current rally is mostly based on the hype/wishful thinking that the Fed will stop hiking after a 25 bps raise next week, that is likely to be punished as the inflation is still way too high for the 2% inflation target by the Fed ......................  

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 January 2023 - 01:13 PM.

[dTraderB]

I am CLOSING, will keep TLT CALLS, UVXY CALLS, and TESLA PUTS

 

This has been a tough January with a good 6.19% net account gain, less than 2022, but good enough to start 2023. 

Riding it out during the rest of the month, slightly short -  mainly in RISK PORTFOLIO. Added NAT GAS LONGs, small position to start with 3 TESLA PUTS, and UVXY CALLS. 

 

Market looks ready to break out to at least ES 4250

 

But, the geopolitical situation - especially Ukraine, China-Taiwan - seems to be hanging heavy over the  market.

 

Partially hedged, will adjust, or CLOSE ALL POSITIONS today or Monday, and daytrade NQ until Tuesday.

[K Wave]

If Utes indeed stop at 970 area and reverse back under 964, then I think bears may still have a shot.

 

But if they start blowing out upside instead, bulls may have successfully defended the LT trend area.

 

So for bears, would want to see Utes back below 964 and REIT close back under 2400.

 

Time window is stretched the max here, but not quite over for bears just yet, although next few hours action might shut that window.

Edited by K Wave, 27 January 2023 - 01:34 PM.

[K Wave]

Utes 3 hour.....these double moves into resistance are usually bearish...unless price shoots straight up after the 2nd one....

 

Like I said, time window is near the end and decision very soon....bears probably got until Monday at the latest to make their move.

 

[K Wave]

Utes 1 min....

 

Bears likely have to get under than 1 min 900 before it takes out 975 upside...

 

[K Wave]

As you can see, hourly very wound up as well....

 

Likely really big decision here soon...

 

[K Wave]

on 2 hours Utes, bears must break down hard from the underneath of the 200....

 

failure to do so likely puts bull back in charge...

 

[K Wave]

and 4 hour shows why...