351 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) tweeted at 1:40 PM on Sun, Jan 29, 2023:

Seems to me that the most bullish things here are technical and the most bearish are economic/monetary.

 

 

Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) tweeted at 1:40 PM on Sun, Jan 29, 2023:
Seems to me that the most bullish things here are technical and the most bearish are economic/monetary.

Edited by dTraderB, 29 January 2023 - 06:23 PM.

[dTraderB]

Opened new NAT GAS LONG  @2.674

 

Will add more longs below 2.61

[dTraderB]

Good week, good January. 

Am Partially SHORT, small positions, riding out next 2 days in January

with mainly NQ daytrading

 That is the plan but will change if MARKETS drop below ES 3980  or spike up above 4250

[dTraderB]

I observe many are looking at Resistance at or just above the market, the NOV highs, that horizontal line from the NOV highs ... 

But still markets bullish, could rally into FED meeting, a PACKED WEEK with also busiest earnings week so far, and the very important 

NFM Employment report

 

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Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

 

 

Good Saturday Morning Chart Fans! The only theme I see heading into FOMC/Big cap tech eps week is 'resistance overhead' on almost every chart. Will they get pushed through or use it as an excuse for a breather?

 

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Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

 

 

Good Saturday Morning Chart Fans! The only theme I see heading into FOMC/Big cap tech eps week is 'resistance overhead' on almost every chart. Will they get pushed through or use it as an excuse for a breather?

[dTraderB]

China is signaling more stimulus but markets there and in Hong Kong are extended and could pull back before another big rally 

 

"It looks like a quiet start to the week in Asia on Monday, but don't be fooled - it may be the calm before the storm.

 

A raft of regional economic indicators including Japanese unemployment and PMIs from China, Australia and India, as well as U.S. non-farm payrolls and U.S., euro zone and UK interest rates decisions will surely provide fireworks later in the wee

China reopens after the Lunar New Year holiday, so trading volumes in Asia will return to something resembling normal. Just in time for a potentially choppy 24-hour period over Wednesday and Thursday when the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England announce their latest policy decisions.

 

The debate over U.S. recession or soft landing, and Fed "pivot" or "higher for longer" may acquire more clarity after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday. Right now, investors' glasses are half full. "  -- REUTERS BUSINESS

Edited by dTraderB, 29 January 2023 - 06:42 PM.

[dTraderB]

SMART & DUMB money is not an indicator or concept in which I have confidence, maybe because I hardly use it.

But, there are some who are suggesting the DUMB $$ is pouring into the market, being sold by the SMART MONEY

 

A good thread on this here:

"Dumb Money is extremely optimistic on the market This has marked every top throughout 2022 Are we about to see another leg down?"

https://twitter.com/...027959041658881

[dTraderB]

Lowest since last August:

Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

·

Jan 28

 

So with that as background, here is the 10 dma of the equity put/call ratio which was .51 on Friday which is the lowest reading since it was .50 in mid August.

https://twitter.com/...341404345360386

 

SMART & DUMB money is not an indicator or concept in which I have confidence, maybe because I hardly use it.

But, there are some who are suggesting the DUMB $$ is pouring into the market, being sold by the SMART MONEY

 

A good thread on this here:

"Dumb Money is extremely optimistic on the market This has marked every top throughout 2022 Are we about to see another leg down?"

https://twitter.com/...027959041658881

[dTraderB]

And, INSIDER SALES/BUYS RATIO  at one-year high

 

 

@hmeisler 

Insiders. Welp we know what they think of things now don't we?

https://twitter.com/...4250881/photo/1

 

 

 

Lowest since last August:

Helene Meisler

 

@hmeisler

·

Jan 28

 

So with that as background, here is the 10 dma of the equity put/call ratio which was .51 on Friday which is the lowest reading since it was .50 in mid August.

https://twitter.com/...341404345360386

 

SMART & DUMB money is not an indicator or concept in which I have confidence, maybe because I hardly use it.

But, there are some who are suggesting the DUMB $$ is pouring into the market, being sold by the SMART MONEY

 

A good thread on this here:

"Dumb Money is extremely optimistic on the market This has marked every top throughout 2022 Are we about to see another leg down?"

https://twitter.com/...027959041658881

 

[dTraderB]

Yeah, that was a darn good January rally, pullback and then resume rally  the most likely scenario.

 

Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

·

Jan 27

Equity Markets YTD S&P 500 +5.75% CSI 300 +8% Euro Stoxx 50 +9.8% MSCI EM +10.1% Nasdaq 100 +10.16%

Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

·

Jan 27

Equity Markets YTD S&P 500 +5.75% CSI 300 +8% Euro Stoxx 50 +9.8% MSCI EM +10.1% Nasdaq 100 +10.16%

[dTraderB]

WSJ's Nick seem to have a "good idea" of the FED's thoughts. Some go after him, real nasty at times, but his 

WSJ articles and his tweets sometimes are a good indication of the FED's intentions. That is as far as I will go on this. 

 

Anyway, my FF is FED downdraft to 25bps, still sound hawkish, tell us they are data-dependent etc

 

However, the earnings/guidance and JOBS report may have more influence on the markets

 

@NickTimiraos

 

 

Powell put special emphasis on the category of core services inflation that excludes housing, given the potential for it to be stickier (and because housing inflation is set to slow) Dec core PCE services inflation ex-housing: +4.09% YoY +4.04% on a three-month annualized rate