474 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Someone tweeted second half of February is seasonally bearish. Lost the link.

"Happy New Month! Welcome to February (what some might say is the *actual* start of the year, given all the disruption and chaos and out of office replies you get during January). Along with the breakout of that widely-watched trendline + initial break out vs resistance (4100) + a golden cross Januarys 6.2% gain for the S&P500 saw it retaking its 10-month moving average."


Big Up January: And historically, when you see such a strong January after a down year, the historical tendency (albeit small sample size) has been for the full-year return to be positive and meaningfully so.

https://topdownchart...tm_medium=email

[dTraderB]

Market still "cheap" ?

https://www.mornings...rket-fair-value

[dTraderB]

Glad to get these updates done, hopefully I can avoid it for another month or 2.
ALREADY EXTREME GREED & FEAR,?

Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) tweeted at 1:26 PM on Sun, Feb 05, 2023:

Did investors learn nothing from last years mkt meltdown? Story-driven comps rather than businesses that have solid cash flows have gained most in 2023. AMC Entertainment PFD has more than doubled. Fear & Greed Index is back in 'Extreme Greed' territory. https://t.co/uuMrzXglsy

https://t.co/VwDsExlV36

[pdx5]

This January rally was more broad based than entire 2022.

[K Wave]

Maybe. Or not. But in 2022 the market has made an IMPORTANT BOTTOM that can hold for longer than a few days.


History Tells Us We're Going A LOT Higher
Tom Bowley | February 05, 2023 at 11:50 AM


https://stockcharts....oing-a-112.html

History Tells Us We're Going A LOT Higher
Tom Bowley | February 05, 2023 at 11:50 AM
https://stockcharts....oing-a-112.html

IF we make through this next week, he could be right....

 

Saw a few things on Friday that cast some doubt on bulls resolve to lift off here...

 

See if they get corrected early this week ...OR NOT

 

Bears still have one last crack it here...and it starts with a breach of Dow 33800, which it is flirting with right now...

 

IF it ends up holding 33800 and we take out 34K one more time, then bulls likely take the ball, and possibly for a while.

[K Wave]

Someone tweeted second half of February is seasonally bearish. Lost the link.

"Happy New Month! Welcome to February (what some might say is the *actual* start of the year, given all the disruption and chaos and out of office replies you get during January). Along with the breakout of that widely-watched trendline + initial break out vs resistance (4100) + a golden cross Januarys 6.2% gain for the S&P500 saw it retaking its 10-month moving average."


Big Up January: And historically, when you see such a strong January after a down year, the historical tendency (albeit small sample size) has been for the full-year return to be positive and meaningfully so.

https://topdownchart...tm_medium=email

Hartnett says Q1 top before Valentine's day, but says 4200 might be seen...although since we just saw 4195 hit............

[K Wave]

Market still "cheap" ?

https://www.mornings...rket-fair-value

Yeah...That's the Ticket

 

Linear, keep on truckin' thinking usually leads to trouble in very cyclical arenas.

 

Of course, does not mean the insanity can't get even more insane before it all gets blown up...

 

[K Wave]

Glad to get these updates done, hopefully I can avoid it for another month or 2.
ALREADY EXTREME GREED & FEAR,?

Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) tweeted at 1:26 PM on Sun, Feb 05, 2023:

Did investors learn nothing from last years mkt meltdown? Story-driven comps rather than businesses that have solid cash flows have gained most in 2023. AMC Entertainment PFD has more than doubled. Fear & Greed Index is back in 'Extreme Greed' territory. https://t.co/uuMrzXglsy

https://t.co/VwDsExlV36

Anytime I saw a slew of Island reversals after vertical swing moves...my hackles go up...

 

If those get taken out upside, then bulls likely got something to talk about.

[K Wave]

On the flip side of that...NG trying to get a Gap up and possibly Go tonight after a brutal straight down move.

 

See if it can clear 2.45. Would be first sign bulls might finally have a counter offensive in mind.

[12SPX]

Taking my time today, as it was a restless night.  Interesting that the market started the night session down so much yesterday and more this morning.  Decided to take the rest of my profits on my shorts at 4010 before the cash open for a 45 point profit will wait to see how the cash open goes before even possibly going long.  Bonds are really backing up here and put options not that pricey so we could see more downside, see how it goes after the open....