23 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

 

Mark, we had this argument 15 years ago, check your posts, I have excellent memory of you saying just the opposite.... that you had to know whether you were in a bull or bear market for longer term decision-making.

 

So you have changed your mind, have you?

Which Mark???

 

 

  ..well exactly.

 

If it was me - heck, 15 years ago..I change my mind on stuff ..I think its called 'learning/experience'...i've learnt ALOT in the last 15 years and changed my mind on many things that is for sure.

 

I have bit more time so let me say, I believe Mark(OEX)   has a very good sense of the market, which is maybe something that is not totally quantifiable in TA .we could loosely call it 'read of the tape' which

is very experienced based. Whether that is partly due to knowing what the main trend is - bull/bear ... partly but I see in my own evolution that is partly the 'school of market hard knocks' type deal -learning what is

important and what isn't  - and I think, some of this is very hard to communicate to others, so, we may say things differently and kind of argue semantics but end up actually thinking similarly. 

 

So what I was trying to say in that post about prediction, was more about avoiding being dogmatic and rigid in belief about a certain trend ...more than saying its not useful to know the trend - obviously its very useful to

know if it a bull or bear! ...but my point is, we cannot know for sure - and maybe best we can do is 60-80% 'sureness' .. and so we must remain flexible to change that view based ideally on some method that shows

good backtested history. 

 

Right now If I was forced to answer i've said my 'math' says its a bear market - and turns to bull if we get a weekly close above 4300 ....but my main goals is to try to be in synch with the one trend below that but it changes,

sometimes that trend is also 'murky' so as I said

 ->its about trying to synch with the clearest trend you can identify, whatever that is!

 

hope this is clearer.

Edited by EntropyModel, 23 February 2023 - 01:10 PM.

[skott]

Bull or Bear Market. Does it Matter?   I can tell you this: it matters when you are short

[OEXCHAOS]

 

 

Mark, we had this argument 15 years ago, check your posts, I have excellent memory of you saying just the opposite.... that you had to know whether you were in a bull or bear market for longer term decision-making.

 

So you have changed your mind, have you?

Which Mark???

 

 

  ..well exactly.

 

If it was me - heck, 15 years ago..I change my mind on stuff ..I think its called 'learning/experience'...i've learnt ALOT in the last 15 years and changed my mind on many things that is for sure.

 

I have bit more time so let me say, I believe Mark(OEX)   has a very good sense of the market, which is maybe something that is not totally quantifiable in TA .we could loosely call it 'read of the tape' which

is very experienced based. Whether that is partly due to knowing what the main trend is - bull/bear ... partly but I see in my own evolution that is partly the 'school of market hard knocks' type deal -learning what is

important and what isn't  - and I think, some of this is very hard to communicate to others, so, we may say things differently and kind of argue semantics but end up actually thinking similarly. 

 

So what I was trying to say in that post about prediction, was more about avoiding being dogmatic and rigid in belief about a certain trend ...more than saying its not useful to know the trend - obviously its very useful to

know if it a bull or bear! ...but my point is, we cannot know for sure - and maybe best we can do is 60-80% 'sureness' .. and so we must remain flexible to change that view based ideally on some method that shows

good backtested history. 

 

Right now If I was forced to answer i've said my 'math' says its a bear market - and turns to bull if we get a weekly close above 4300 ....but my main goals is to try to be in synch with the one trend below that but it changes,

sometimes that trend is also 'murky' so as I said

 ->its about trying to synch with the clearest trend you can identify, whatever that is!

 

hope this is clearer.

 

I figured we were not as far apart as one might think.

I wanted to add that, for me, there's a huge psychological benefit to knowing if we are likely to be trading like a Bull or a Bear Market. My stuff works very differently in a Bear Market, and in point of fact some very good indicators (especially the Buy signals) don't work so well. Now, I know we're supposed to be sang froid as traders, but for me (and I think most of my subscribers), the psychological cost of a long string of losers--even if they are small--is remarkably high, often resulting in not trading signals that actually should be taken when they should be taken.

Avoiding those frustrating runs is really beneficial and not just avoided losses but also missed bull moves.

The Other Mark

[K Wave]

And we may be real close to actually finding out whether bull or bear...

 

So far...on Dow, just a big scary pullback to potential support zone, as I was harping on over last few weeks being reasonably likely.

 

Tagged both 3 and 4 hour Simul-targets today...sometimes they just line up in almost the exact same spot...and makes the magnet that much more powerful...

 

 

3 hour

 

 

4 hour

 

 

But 2 hour is now rolling hard over the top, hence the easy air gap run on 3 and 4 hour time frames once it got busted.

 

 

 

So this is an extremely important area, as if 3 and 4 hour also get blown out, then bears have to be considered to be gaining the upper hand.

 

But if bulls can battle it out down here and eventually win out, and reclaim the 2 hour line, then bulls are the likely victors...and that would start near 33600, which should be big resistance now if we bounce that high. But if bulls do get past it, they likely win. And above that swing high above 34K. no telling high high it could run.

[K Wave]

Over on Naz Comp, which is the weak sister here....

 

It looks pretty simple...either it holds near today's lows, or it reasonably likely starts to flip back into LT bear mode...

 

But for me to get super bearish, it would really have to take out the floor support of the trip tops area...do that, and bears in full control.

 

So for bull outcome, would be looking for Momo to turn back up PDQ after 200 day back test.

 

And for bear outcome, momo needs to keep on truckin' though Zero line and price take out the yellow line.

 

So you can essentially watch 2 stocks, Apple and Tesla here. If they do not keep advancing, and instead their big rallies start to unravel, then likely trouble ahead.

 

[K Wave]

Here is Tesla hourly...it certainly "could" get the big roll here...whether it does is the question...

 

Hard down on Monday after the SWUP today under the key level could do it...

 

But a gap up through that key level could put bulls right back in business...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[K Wave]

And Apple also at an interesting spot....it "could" certainly launch from the hourly back test.

 

But like Tesla, hard down on Monday could change things, and seal in a ginormous throwover of a key level...

 

So one just above the hourly, and one just below...betting they pick a direction on same side soon....

 

[CLK]

IYB knows how to call bull or bear market.
We had a huge internal NYMO low in
October followed by a false sell in December, most shorts got burned on that, now is most likely the end of an abc B wave from October that goes to new lows, most likely we get higher internals on this new low and ends the bear, if no new low, then it will get postponed until October.

That's how it usually works right?
Bear ends on new low with higher internals.

[K Wave]

Another one to watch here REAL closely over next few days for the general market, and especially XLF, is BRK (14% of XLF all by itself)

 

15 min looks to be in hard rollover mode, but price held...so far...at the much more powerful 4 hour line.

Plus a whole bunch of other time frames all coagulating in the same area, so high likeihood of fully synchronous turn soon.

 

So I see 2 possibilities here, 1 of which is likely to manifest in full force very soon.

 

The bear outcome is that the Friday ramp to 306 was the last hurrah floor test as the 15 min breaks away downside, and BRK is just about to jump off of a BIG cliff.

 

The bull outcome is that after reconsidering life over the weekend, it decides not to jump after all, and backs away from the cliff edge upside in a hurry.

 

I really believe now that we do not have much longer to wait on this one for a massive decision, that will quite likely affect the overall market.

 

15 min

 

 

4 hour

 

[K Wave]

So all in all, bulls still OK....unless...we soon see hard breaks of support on AAPL TSLA GS BRK UNH simultaneously

 

And UNH faltered just a bit into the close on Friday, setting up potential crash on Monday, but could easily be prevented by strong move back over 487.

 

Multi-time frame look a Dow Big Kahuna UNH..

 

15 min...careful....IMMEDIATE recovery needed here...

 

 

3 Hour....again, if bear flag breaks down.....

 

 

4 hour...the BIG Decision here

 

 

Daily...blow out the 4 hour and Crash Window opens wide....and the dreaded momo cross below Zero possibly looming

 

 

And Monthly momo not looking so hot after the Hangin' Man printed at the top of an epic bubble run........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by K Wave, 25 February 2023 - 11:49 AM.