225 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

 

I am also leaning bullish
 

I see this dip is likely to be bought and so I just bought some ES calls when ES at 3943...................

 

It was a headfake move in the morning and I will explain why after the close today ..................................

 

ES now at 3983, 40 points higher from the time I bought ES calls and posted around noon.  As SPX 200 dma was successfully defended in a day when bond yield was skyrocketing a swing bottom for SPX was likely in.  BTW, 10 yr bond yield today is likely at a top at least in ST  ............................. 

Edited by redfoliage2, 02 March 2023 - 03:43 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Now I'd expect the overnight index futures to go up as other stock markets of the world going to follow as US market today reversed from a bottom ......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 02 March 2023 - 04:04 PM.

[redfoliage2]

 

I am also leaning bullish
 

I see this dip is likely to be bought and so I just bought some ES calls when ES at 3943...................

 

It was a headfake move in the morning and I will explain why after the close today ..................................

 

The spike in US 10 yr yield is likely an overreaction to the European CPI released in the early morning today.  Inflation profile is not the same between US and Euro zone where prices have been more affected by the ongoing R-U war, and US CPI won't be out in two weeks.  I also noticed that while SPX hit the low in the morning the market breadth and VIX barely budged, indicating the selling momentum was weak.  By the close SPX reversed 50 points from the morning low and successfully defended key lines (200 dma, the breakout of the 2022 down trend) in a day when bond yield was skyrocketing .................................... 

Edited by redfoliage2, 02 March 2023 - 04:42 PM.

[redfoliage2]

 

 

I am also leaning bullish
 

I see this dip is likely to be bought and so I just bought some ES calls when ES at 3943...................

 

It was a headfake move in the morning and I will explain why after the close today ..................................

 

The spike in US 10 yr yield is likely an overreaction to the European CPI released in the early morning today.  Inflation profile is not the same between US and Euro zone where prices have been more affected by the ongoing R-U war, and US CPI won't be out in two weeks.  I also noticed that while SPX hit the low in the morning the market breadth and VIX barely budged, indicating the selling momentum was weak.  By the close SPX reversed 50 points from the morning low and successfully defended key lines (200 dma, the breakout of the 2022 down trend) in a day when bond yield was skyrocketing .................................... 

 

Together with other analysis I see this is likely a swing bottom ...........................

[12SPX]

Built my short up to 3980 but now out for a 2 point profit!!  We'll see how the rest of the night goes with rogue buys and sells in place for the morning...

[dTraderB]

Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) tweeted at 6:32 AM on Fri, Mar 03, 2023:
Morning Note:

-Yields pull back from YTD highs
-ISM Services Index is coming up
-Logan, Bostic + Bowman speak

https://t.co/VHxT4FqfYn

[dTraderB]

Looks like at least a ST LOW

 

 

I am also leaning bullish
 

I see this dip is likely to be bought and so I just bought some ES calls when ES at 3943...................

 

It was a headfake move in the morning and I will explain why after the close today ..................................
 

The spike in US 10 yr yield is likely an overreaction to the European CPI released in the early morning today.  Inflation profile is not the same between US and Euro zone where prices have been more affected by the ongoing R-U war, and US CPI won't be out in two weeks.  I also noticed that while SPX hit the low in the morning the market breadth and VIX barely budged, indicating the selling momentum was weak.  By the close SPX reversed 50 points from the morning low and successfully defended key lines (200 dma, the breakout of the 2022 down trend) in a day when bond yield was skyrocketing .................................... 
 

Together with other analysis I see this is likely a swing bottom ...........................

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:
U.S. and global Feb service sector surveys
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Dallas Fed chief Lorrie Logan and Richmond Fed chief Thomas Barkin all speak
U.S. President Joe Biden meets German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House
Foreign ministers of the Quad countries the United States, Japan, Australia and India meet in New Delhi

[dTraderB]

Again, I will continue to take profits after 2 to 3% ES rallies or declines, rather than focusing on IT OR LT trades, with few exceptions.

[dTraderB]

Done. +2.07% for 3 days in March

HOLDING TLT CALLS
UVXY CALLS

Again, I will continue to take profits after 2 to 3% ES rallies or declines, rather than focusing on IT OR LT trades, with few exceptions.