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Risk and Crash Windows & the Little Fed Boy Who Cried Wolf

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 27 February 2023 - 04:15 PM

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday February 27th, Wednesday March 1st and Friday the 3rd, another "W" or "M" shaped week in the making I guess.


Last week I was so danged busy that I didn't get a chance to post the risk window, but it was Friday the 24th of February, which was the low for the week and maybe a bottom of some minor degree depending on action early this week. 


Just in case life's little headaches overwhelm me again over the next couple of weeks, I thought that I should note the approaching crash risk window which stretches from Thursday March 16th through Wednesday March 22nd.  I've posted several of these over the years since there's anywhere from two to three a year, but none have amounted to a hill of beans.  Chances are this one won't either, but just in case...



I miss the old days of the Greenspan and earlier Fed's where the press was forced to parse through cryptically worded Fed statements to figure out what the Fed was actually up to, and Fed governors were all tight-lipped.  Now a days, every Fed head that draws a breath is up on the stump espousing his/her monetary vision and take on the Fed direction, pure data overload.  Maybe this bounty of Fed  babbling like the little boy that cried wolf is what's killing the Fed's credibility.  Sometimes less is more.  Unless the inflation and economic numbers start to cooperate, the less is going to have to be liquidity and the more is going to be interest rate hikes.