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Fed Might Need To Pivot Soon


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#1 MikeyG

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 10:18 AM

Data coming out this month is much different than January, where we saw a dead cat bounce in inflation due to people taking on debt, 2nd jobs and stay at home Moms entering the workforce to keep pace. 

 

Richmond Fed lowest since 2020 (February Number)

Wholesale Inventories lowest since 2020

Durable Goods orders lowest month over month since 2020 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing employment declined first time since 2020 (February Number)

Consumer Confidence dropping like a stone (February Number)

 

The deflationary process is starting to take shape here, which is bullish for the market, technicals are taking shape for a nice bounce here especially into next week, IMHO. 


Edited by MikeyG, 28 February 2023 - 10:19 AM.

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#2 pdx5

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 10:23 AM

Yes, bad news in economy is bullish 😂
I am thinking of buying 1 year Treasury bills after FED's rate decision in March.

Edited by pdx5, 28 February 2023 - 10:27 AM.

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#3 linrom1

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 10:57 AM

 

If these guys are right, there won't be any pivot in our lifetime. It's going to be inflation for the next 30-years and total chaos in western countries marred by constant shortages.



#4 MikeyG

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 11:18 AM

Thar Richmond manufacturing number. Besides 2 low numbers in 2020 due to Covid shutdown, we have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a lower number. 

 

Only one data point, but this does not happen in a vacuum. 

 

Interest rate sensitive instruments looking bullish, IWM for example is taking note on this data today. 


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#5 skott

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 11:41 AM

The most important thing to the Fed is their Fiat currency. I believe they will crash the economy to keep it going.  Remembery Powell said "we look forward to many more good years to come"  Bill Gates followed with similar "this is the greatest time to be born"  and Biden said something similar about america's future.  They always say the opposite of what will really happen at critical turning points.



#6 linrom1

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 11:47 AM

The most important thing to the Fed is their Fiat currency. I believe they will crash the economy to keep it going.  Remembery Powell said "we look forward to many more good years to come"  Bill Gates followed with similar "this is the greatest time to be born"  and Biden said something similar about america's future.  They always say the opposite of what will really happen at critical turning points.

The best time to be born was in 1930-40s.



#7 skott

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 01:47 PM

 

The most important thing to the Fed is their Fiat currency. I believe they will crash the economy to keep it going.  Remembery Powell said "we look forward to many more good years to come"  Bill Gates followed with similar "this is the greatest time to be born"  and Biden said something similar about america's future.  They always say the opposite of what will really happen at critical turning points.

The best time to be born was in 1930-40s.

 

 

I agree but the wonderful POS Bill Gates who hates farming but is the largest farm landholder in the usa say now and the next 20 years is the best time to be born because you know, we'll eat bugs, no meat and we'll own nothing and we'll be happy with it. And you won't have free speech at all because that is dangerous



#8 pdx5

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 04:02 PM

Do not worry bulls.
FED pivot coming soon.
Demand is falling fast.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#9 pdx5

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 04:51 PM

[quote name="linrom1"
The best time to be born was in 1930-40s.[/quote]
I agree. I came to USA at age 20 in 1960. It was golden here then.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#10 K Wave

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 06:34 PM

As an FYI, the long slow collapse in lumber marked the end of the inflationary period from the 1970s. This current collapse is much bigger in magnitude percentagewise and much faster...

So there is that... Do With it what you will.

I personally happen to think that the covid funny money bubble was the end of a 40 year ponzi, and that there are new rules of engagement now...

Those hoping for more inflation are doing just that...hoping...

Unless of course the fed panic prints again, then different story.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy