11 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

https://markdavidson...dium=email#play

 

Current Intraday comments thread:

https://www.traders-...arget/?p=887234

[EntropyModel]

Hit 3928 this AM - but I still don't see a Swing low - and that is a problem ...we need to see a big spike up in various components, especially vix to get it.

[EntropyModel]

It helps to have day trading/Short term system for this kind of tricky Swing setup where we test key support and not clear if it will break.

 

Right now on the short term I am looking for this intraday bounce to lead to LOWER LOW toward 3900 area ...BUT, there is now a ST price setup there for

a bigger bounce from there.

 

So for now - looking for lower low - 3900+-10.... then bigger bounce setup, tbd

Timeframe- i'd expect this bounce to fail by tomorrow and see lower low.

[EntropyModel]

02:13 Fed’s Bostic says he’s firmly in quarter-point rate rise camp 

 

Yet another 'slope of hope' fugly spike up off 'news' of  'FED pivot' bla bla 

 

This keeps taking us further away from a good risk/reward swing buy setup,and negates that ST setup for low here.

 

I am liking this less and less for a swing low, and looking at possible continuation swing move down toward 3750-3800 but that is not setup yet either,

so we remain in 'limbo' on swing setup - patiently wait for market to show its hand.

 

* for example I need this key ST signal to get above green band(buy zone) keeps reaching red sell zone as now - it has very high win/loss rate

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzk2MDI2OF8yMTA3NTk1OA

Edited by EntropyModel, 02 March 2023 - 02:36 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Difficult to call here ST - but typically these 'emotional news FED' reactions have reversed, Fridays have been bearish biased, and we're at ST resistance with some sell signals

 - so I lean we drop from current 3980 highs down into tomorrow .

 

but whatever  - right now patience game to wait for good risk/reward setup on Swing - I don't see as been saying YET.

[EntropyModel]

 fugly bounce ...I don't see a good setup as said - i'll pass until I see better risk/reward on swing.

Time to be patience and let market show its hand 

 

Longer term as said - this looks increasingly bearish.

Edited by EntropyModel, 03 March 2023 - 11:34 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Sneaky turn up  there - was looking for it but didn't get setup I wanted -  ..this looks like final runup to me.

[EntropyModel]

mark davidson

just nowAuthor

There high odds is support from USD for a while - that has been main driver of this up bounce -

Basically - what I see, have said - to confirm my longer setup ..is we get a choppy zone now for few weeks ..a sort of 'right shoulder' ...that is SETUP1 ,that then rolls over hard into April and downtrend finally .... a SETUP2 - is we get back to 4200-4300 reigion in underside test that fails ..but I see this less likely than 1 .....and I suppose a SETUP3 is we just fail now, but that is less likely but any move back now under 3960 area is big trouble and my sort of line in sand ...I will likely go over these in next update.

 

Edited by EntropyModel, 06 March 2023 - 05:45 PM.

[EntropyModel]

mark davidson

just now

Key TEST - 3980-3990 area for INTERMEDIATE TREND here now - this is starting to get very important for my IT and longer term read, and its definitely leaning as said more and more bearish. Again here VIX is staying too low and other data.

 

I expect alot of whipsaw/faking - shaking here ..cd last hours or even weeks ...but each move adds new information to help the read.

 

But to repeat and be clear( as I am busy with other non market project currently) - I am lookin at this now as final stage of bounce since OCT ..time wise longest I cd

see this runing is end of March but probably alot less depending on action.I have layed out alot of 'reasoning' for the longer term in that bond post as well so won't repeat,

now just focussed on technical setup.

 

Just my view - do you own due diligence.

 

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 March 2023 - 12:54 PM.

[EntropyModel]

fyi - 

ST VIX model very bearish here - note we sold off from the sell zone ..but not getting into buy zone on this drop as we move to key pivot/fib support- that ain't bullish

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzk3NjMxMV8yMTA5OTU2Mg

 

ALSO - as I mentioned the LQ model is increasingly bearish - probably the most bearish model component and it close to giving major sell signals.

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 March 2023 - 01:56 PM.