82 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

1 year ago Fed funds was 0%... since then 290 global rate hikes (425 past 2 years) not a prelude to "Goldilocks", prelude to hard landing & credit events bad "crashy vibes of March" set to worsen absent a soft Feb payroll number

BofAs Michael Hartnett

[dTraderB]

US Payrolls Guesses

Deutsche Bank 300k
Santander 300k
Jefferies 290k
SocGen 280k
UBS 275k
Wells 270k
Nomura 265k
Citigroup 255k
Evercore 250k
Goldman 250k
BNP Paribas 240k
BofA 230k
TD 230k
Barclays 225k
Credit Suisse 200k
JPM 200k
HSBC 190k
Morgan Stanley 190k
StanChart 150k

[dTraderB]

My FF is ES drops below 3800 today or next week, makes a low and bounces.

However, the FED must get their act together or else SPX Ccould plunge below 3400 sometime during the next 2 months

US Payrolls Guesses

Deutsche Bank 300k
Santander 300k
Jefferies 290k
SocGen 280k
UBS 275k
Wells 270k
Nomura 265k
Citigroup 255k
Evercore 250k
Goldman 250k
BNP Paribas 240k
BofA 230k
TD 230k
Barclays 225k
Credit Suisse 200k
JPM 200k
HSBC 190k
Morgan Stanley 190k
StanChart 150k

[dTraderB]

NFM Neither bullish nor bearish but FED cannot raise by 50bps after this....

RALLY today or next week

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 9:48 AM on Fri, Mar 10, 2023:
NFP reaction in & after an initial instant spike down, squeeze underway in #ES_F. I was looking for a relief pop to 3948 and 8 points off so far.

3948-50 remains next up: Key decision point & squeeze trigger back to yesterdays 3970-75. 3920 now support; fail starts unwind again

[dTraderB]

THE FED ARE NOW SEEN AS MORE LIKELY TO DELIVER A 25 BPS RATE HIKE THIS MONTH, THAN A 50 BPS POINT HIKE, BASED ON FED FUNDS FUTURES PRICING.

311K new jobs is hawkish, but there are enough offsets to make this US jobs report dovish in aggregate, @knowledge_vital says. US 2y yields plunge by 15bps to 4.72%.

NFM Neither bullish nor bearish but FED cannot raise by 50bps after this....

RALLY today or next week

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 9:48 AM on Fri, Mar 10, 2023:
NFP reaction in & after an initial instant spike down, squeeze underway in #ES_F. I was looking for a relief pop to 3948 and 8 points off so far.

3948-50 remains next up: Key decision point & squeeze trigger back to yesterdays 3970-75. 3920 now support; fail starts unwind again

[linrom1]

NFP came 100k over what every institution expected. How is this bearish?

Edited by linrom1, 10 March 2023 - 09:22 AM.

[redfoliage2]

NFP still too high with 311K more on payrolls,  likely more bear attacks in March ...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 10 March 2023 - 09:42 AM.

[redfoliage2]

NFP still too high with 311K more on payrolls,  likely more bear attacks in March ...................

To reverse the bearish setting SPX needs to bounce to above the 200 dma currently at 3940.51.  ..............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 10 March 2023 - 10:06 AM.

[linrom1]

The most idiotic movement in the market is in gold and gold miners.

[redfoliage2]

Bond market indicating money running away from stocks in accelerated pace into bonds since yesterday.  Bear market has resumed .................

Edited by redfoliage2, 10 March 2023 - 10:26 AM.