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I'd take a look at the Russell 2000, the US Dollar and the VIX


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#1 skott

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 12:13 PM

They are all giving you clues



#2 skott

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 01:10 PM

What I find amazing is the number of people who want to fight the Fed. When has that worked? They are telling you they are going to keep raising and that it will probably have to go on longer than expected. What's more, look at real bear markets. When they do cut it usually is quickly followed by a crash. I guess tomorrow will be part of the picture with the jobs report.



#3 skott

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 01:16 PM

what's the best vehicle for playing the Vix these days. the VXX options don't make any sense to me for the strike prices.

 

bleh, not worth the time and risk for me.


Edited by skott, 09 March 2023 - 01:21 PM.


#4 pdx5

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 01:25 PM

That is correct. FED has stated dozens of times, that rates will keeo going up and stay up until their target inflation index gets down to 2%. A comparable period to study effects of inflation is from 1977 to 1982. Inflation was high and SPX dropped 40% during that period while FED was increasing rates.

 

1976-1984-SPX.png


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#5 skott

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 01:37 PM

You understand Pdx5.

 

BTW, my post today was once again very timely. check the timestamp



#6 skott

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 01:57 PM

Back in late Jan, Feb when SPX broke out above the longer downtrend line from the start of this Bear (early Jan 2022) everyone got excited. "SPX 4300 next!"  "Dow 34,000 they'll realize" blah, blah. Funny how we didn't get any talk about false breakout/fakeouts then. So now the SPX for almost two weeks has broken below the short uptrend line from the Oct 13 low. It is now once again testing the long term downtrend line it broke above in early Jan... this time from above it, while at the same time near to testing the 200 day MA below (as support) and tomorrow is the jobs report.  

 

QQQ 290 decision line waits close below. The 200 has already crossed below the 900. The 900 ma is @ 292.24 for QQQ. The 200 @ 290.13ish.

 

Tomorrow looms large me thinks. What do you all say? could go either way or does the market just lay an egg and stay flat waiting for the next rate decision? 25BPS, 50? or nothing at all?  either way, inflation is reported at 6% I don't even believe that. Broccoli that I buy went up almost 50% this year. Pants I bought last year for $28 are now $40   6% my butt. They have to get this inflation under control.



#7 skott

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 01:59 PM

I think QQQ, etc drops 1/3 from here this year. probably by june/july



#8 slupert

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 02:03 PM

I think QQQ, etc drops 1/3 from here this year. probably by june/july

what would you attribute that too?



#9 pdx5

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 02:09 PM

6% inflation because they ignore food & energy prices. Grocery store prices have inflated double digits in my opinion. Utility bills also going up double digits. Necessities have gone up double digits such as rent, new homes prices, home insurance, hospital bills, doctors bills etc. Discretionary items such as electronics, clothes, shoes etc not too bad.


Edited by pdx5, 09 March 2023 - 02:13 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#10 skott

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Posted 09 March 2023 - 02:38 PM

 

I think QQQ, etc drops 1/3 from here this year. probably by june/july

what would you attribute that too?

 

big bear market patterns of the past