254 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Have been testing & also a few trades in my 2023 version of an old ES VST & ST daytrading system not really a SYSTEM but a few indicators & volume. Will post later.

[dTraderB]

The ONLY two reasons I lean bullishly - but will change quickly if necessary:
The FED & OTHER CENTRAL BANKS WILL NOT ALLOW financial system to endure too much stress.

And McOsc appears to have made an important LOW

https://www.mcoscill...adth_data/?s=03

[dTraderB]

Good stuff from Tom:

The fallout from the SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse has finally put fear into the hearts of investors, and especially options traders, pushing up the VIX from the low 20s to a close of 26.14 on March 15, 2023. That took the VIX Index up above the prices of all of its futures contracts, which creates a unique oversold sentiment situation that is the subject of this weeks chart.

For any sentiment indicator like the VIX, analysts want to know what high and low readings consist of. Some use static numerical levels for the VIX, which is a problematic approach because the normal levels for the VIX can vary a lot over time. Others (including me) like to use dynamic thresholds such as Bollinger Bands.


https://www.mcoscill...of_its_futures/

[dTraderB]

ECB RATE DECISION, WILL THEY BLINK?

[dTraderB]

.. and this:


"Nasdaq volume to total NYSE volume can be used as a decent sentiment indicator for the stock market. It is not without its problems, though, so one can learn to deal with its vagaries.

This weeks chart shows that ratio, smoothed with a 10-day simple moving average to see past the noise in the data. It correlates pretty nicely with the movements of the Nasdaq Composite Index. When it gets up to a high level, it helps to mark a top, especially at the moment when it turns down from that high level. And low levels help to mark nice price bottoms. The current level is still up pretty high, and so the immediate conclusion is that falling prices have not yet done enough work on sentiment yet to show us a nice bottoming condition for stock prices.

Nasdaq stocks tend to be more speculative, in part because of the easier listing standards there, and in part because of tradition concerning the types of companies that choose to list there versus the NYSE. So when traders are feeling more frisky, they like to trade Nasdaq stocks more, driving up the total volume on that exchange. And when prices have fallen, and people retreat back into trader hibernation, the Nasdaq markets total volume falls in comparison to the NYSE. This is all a nice neat story, and viewing these readings in the context of the recent range of values works for the past two and a half years.

It becomes a problem, though, when we look back farther in time. There was a big change that began after the Covid Crash in March 2020, when free money and people trading while working from home boosted the volume in low priced stocks. Share volume is not all the same, and the same amount of money invested in low priced stocks results in more numerical shares traded. That helped to boost this Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio up to a seemingly permanent new high range of values....

nasdaq to nyse volume ratio 10day moving average

Therein lies the problem. If you are going to use this or any indicator to gauge when a high or low reading offers us a sentiment indication, then you need

https://www.mcoscill...ice_bottom_yet/

[dTraderB]

Bearish weekly JOBS report, also HOUSING

[jacek]

Have been testing & also a few trades in my 2023 version of an old ES VST & ST daytrading system not really a SYSTEM but a few indicators & volume. Will post later.

WindoTrader?

[K Wave]

STILL unable to get Apple over the top...

 

now we see if bears can finally crack it on the downside....

 

Rusty testing the lows...

[K Wave]

Watch the 5 min line on BTC here today...could be a big decision there soon..

 

Edited by K Wave, 16 March 2023 - 08:22 AM.

[K Wave]

151.50 could be the decider on Apple..FINALLY

 

see what happens dead ahead here