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The More I Learn About SVB...


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 08:11 AM

The more I'm amazed by the layers of rank incompetence...

 

And I'm the guy who sez, "You'll never go broke underestimating the intelligence of bankers!" (no offense to any of my banker friends, but...)

 

The sad thing is that it's not just the incompetence of the bank management and especially their investment officer, the regulators were totally asleep at the switch.

 

And the laziness and stupidity of the depositors is what really gets me. Who in the Hell just puts massive sums in a bank with just $250k of insurance?!?!? I have to think that all those businesses with deposits there hired CFO's with degrees in gender studies but no actual understanding of finances.

 

There's a reason why there are custodial banks. And brokerage firms with better, safer cash management options with more insurance. You can wire money in a trice, too, so there's no reason to keep excessive sums in any given bank.

 

I just have to shake my head.

And then I imagine all the old white men who were passed over for positions as CFO's and Investment Officers (and the like) who had 25-30 years of experience and who had been through multiple business cycles and crises, who would have avoided all these rookie mistakes...

Then I shake my head again.

 

 


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#2 pdx5

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 08:19 AM

Some of the reports I read said that cfo types came from failed banks from 2008.
Those are most likely old white men?
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#3 MikeyG

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 08:20 AM

Woke capitalism= broke capitalism.

 

That being said, the market is giving us a sale as fair value is over SPX 4000.

 

Unless this spreads which is highly unlikely due to all the massive gains the past two in the bond market along with the Fed backstop. 


Edited by MikeyG, 13 March 2023 - 08:22 AM.

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#4 slupert

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 08:57 AM

It's old white men that got us in to this mess in the first place.Rates should have never been that low in the first place.



#5 linrom1

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 08:58 AM

There was book titled "The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One." It was about savings and loan crisis. This is what happened at SVB. It is the same thing that happened in 2007-2008, the banks were robbed by its employees.


Edited by linrom1, 13 March 2023 - 09:00 AM.


#6 K Wave

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 09:11 AM

And this buying treasuries at the top is just a nit...

 

We have not even added the coming loan defaults in residential and Commercial RE, especially CRE.

 

The complete idiocy I saw in CRE in 2021 into 2022 is going to have BRUTAL consequences.

Keep yer eye on that REIT chart....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 slupert

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 09:13 AM

And this buying treasuries at the top is just a nit...

 

We have not even added the coming loan defaults in residential and Commercial RE, especially CRE.

 

The complete idiocy I saw in CRE in 2021 into 2022 is going to have BRUTAL consequences.

Keep yer eye on that REIT chart....

That will be ugly, then residential. I think we see a dbt crisis, then finally a currency crisis in the next couple years.



#8 12SPX

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 09:24 AM

I'm with Mark just full of incompetence all around and the big banks are fine.  This is not a banking crisis and the panic in puts shows that all over the place.  I've been saying forever the 10-year bond is going to be between 3.50-4.00% forever now, 4.00% bond, market down, 3.50% market flat to up.  Good news as I've been saying the Fed will pause which gives them a good reason for now.  I think the inflation report may come out better than expected also!!  At the least going to be a fun week lol!!  



#9 MikeyG

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 09:45 AM

SVB would have about $500M more if they still had those same bonds.

 

They were trying to raise around 2B in equity, so there is 1/4th of that right there. 


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#10 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 13 March 2023 - 09:47 AM

I sure hope they pause.    Raising rates has slowed Auto, Homes, Restaurants traffic, but has increased spending in groceries and elsewhere.