698 replies to this topic

[jacek]

 

Could you please explain the meaning? Thanks!

Up until last year futures were under the cash market since about 2008 and slowly the spread became closer and closer as we moved along.  They hadn't ever been below the cash market in my entire life of trading so this was strange.  This past year has seen the futures ES go back above cash and gain more and more of a spread.  When we started the current June contract there was about a 32 point range above cash.  This entire April cycle has remained about 30 points above but this past week saw it fall to 25 now around 22 points above cash.  Of course it eventually has to get to the same level as cash level by the June expiration but this was a huge spread and before 2008 was usually always around 10 points above over history so this is another sign of way to much exuberance!!! 

 

Thanks.

 

Does this difference reflect an imbalance in trading futures vs SPX option that is not arbitraged? A sign of using options to drive SPX (in this case) higher?

[redfoliage2]

It's due to higher rate and it reflects the higher cost of holding on the futures .....................

[K Wave]

still not seeing any conclusive evidence bears actually want the ball here....

 

and if they do not grab it real soon, bulls may recover and start driving again.

[K Wave]

It's due to higher rate and it reflects the higher cost of holding on the futures .....................

Bingo

[redfoliage2]

BTW, although dips still got bought it's really a trendless market in its endgame .....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 April 2023 - 01:17 PM.

[K Wave]

GS 5 min fractal lookin' a bit like the 1987 recovery....bears really need it to stall at 340, or bulls right back in biz...

 

 

 

Edited by K Wave, 21 April 2023 - 01:24 PM.

[12SPX]

 

 

Could you please explain the meaning? Thanks!

Up until last year futures were under the cash market since about 2008 and slowly the spread became closer and closer as we moved along.  They hadn't ever been below the cash market in my entire life of trading so this was strange.  This past year has seen the futures ES go back above cash and gain more and more of a spread.  When we started the current June contract there was about a 32 point range above cash.  This entire April cycle has remained about 30 points above but this past week saw it fall to 25 now around 22 points above cash.  Of course it eventually has to get to the same level as cash level by the June expiration but this was a huge spread and before 2008 was usually always around 10 points above over history so this is another sign of way to much exuberance!!! 

 

Thanks.

 

Does this difference reflect an imbalance in trading futures vs SPX option that is not arbitraged? A sign of using options to drive SPX (in this case) higher?

 

Doesn't matter why it is, it just is.  I like to keep things simple and always look at the psychological part of how it effects things.  Right now it shows to much exuberance!!! 

[12SPX]

Just taken out setting my profit stop at 4154 for `1 point profit, hopefully sell higher...

[12SPX]

Gotta go but I'm hoping for 4160 in the end, let you know how it turns out otherwise its a cash weekend!!  Well except all those sold call options lol!!