698 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Bulls tried but still not breaking out.

Is this an unseasonally bearish APRIL?
Most likely NO.

EARNINGS BULLISH? Most likely YES.

BUT, markets need a catalyst to RALLY, OR DECLINE.

DIFFICULT market to trade. Not holding for more than a few days. Hedging.

When it does come IT WILL BE A HUGE RALLY

[dTraderB]

Small LONG position. Almost fully hedged.

Finally, taking my APRIL BREAK from 4pm MONDAY

[dTraderB]

BEARISH CASE:
Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) tweeted at 4:19 PM on Sun, Apr 09, 2023:
The economy is slowing

Credit is tightening

Semiconductor demand is cratering

And the S&P 500 isn't cheap.

[dTraderB]

BULLISH CASE: FED signals PAUSE after MAY 25bps hike

BEARISH CASE: more global instability, war etc, higher oil prices

[dTraderB]

I DO THINK SPX ATH IN 2003.

Here is thr BULLISH CASE:
Ben (@bnsburner) tweeted at 11:40 AM on Sun, Apr 09, 2023:
Based on my gut, here is my prediction:
- this week is strong green as we front run earnings. Tech leads.
- overall April follows seasonality and closes strong.
- May we pull back and all the doomsdayers come out to say I told you so
- but by Dec were at ATHs
$spy $qqq

BEARISH CASE:
Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) tweeted at 4:19 PM on Sun, Apr 09, 2023:
The economy is slowing

Credit is tightening

Semiconductor demand is cratering

And the S&P 500 isn't cheap.

[pdx5]

I am flat and happy, with juicy yields from Treasuries, and looking for SPX below 3500 by October to go long.

[linrom1]

 

 

Samsung Electronics might be hitting the panic button right now, as it has announced that it will be making a ‘meaning’ cut to its chip production. This comes after the Korean giant suffered a massive drop in sales, with a 96% drop in profits during the first quarter of this year marking a downturn in the global semiconductor market.

 

In a preliminary earnings statement, Samsung notes that its operating profit during the January 2023 to March 2023 timeframe is down to just 600 billion Korean won (RM2 billion). It’s a sharp contrast from the 14.12 trillion Korean won it earned during the same period last year, with this year’s first quarter also being Samsung’s lowest profit for any quarter in the last 14 years.

 

 

It's all bullish. New ATH tomorrow. 14.2trillion => 600billioN.....not bankrupt yet? FYI 14 years ago was 2009.

Edited by linrom1, 09 April 2023 - 10:01 PM.

[linrom1]

The market bottomed in March 2009. Typically recession would end about 3-6 months thereafter. This time around, we're just entering the recession. Semis should hit the crapper.....along with all tech.

 

Samsung doesn't care?

Edited by linrom1, 09 April 2023 - 10:17 PM.

[pdx5]

2008 will be Sunday school picnic compared to what may happen now. Commercial properties could drop 40% in value due to drops in occupancy rates. Whatwil that do to REITs? Who said national debt is just a number. Simple 6thgrade math. Treasuries interest for new issues is double than just a year ago. A bunch of countries in Africa have already defaulted on debt with more to come. There is emergency meeting by world bank next week. Ukraine war shows no signs of ending. I hope bank of America does not follow SVB & others. I depend on that bank.

Edited by pdx5, 10 April 2023 - 01:03 AM.

[K Wave]

That failure to Hold 1760 overnight on Rusty could prove costly for bulls