7 replies to this topic

[andr99]

the bull market is when the market goes up, the bear market is when the market goes down........LOL

 

all the rest is..........useless words and useless philosophy (saying useless philosophy is a repetition because useless is implicit to the word philosophy) 

 

I couldn't resist..........I had to remark it, now I get back to the limbo........LOL

 

The limbo is beautifull.......it's silent, no one screaming......bear....bear....bear.......no one understanding nothing and insulting........I would say it looks like.....paradise. 

 

Silent mode re-activated now.  

[andr99]

for 12SPX.......today Musetti sent out Djokovic from the Monte Carlo clay court tournament The time of Federer-Nadal-Djokovic is over.....they won everything for twenty years, now one is retired and the two remaining are in big troubles.

Just a consideration....back to silence  

Edited by andr99, 13 April 2023 - 01:52 PM.

[12SPX]

Ya saw that, looking forward to Fritz and Tsitsipas playing should be interesting!! 

[OEXCHAOS]

I have to respond. I might be misunderstood to be commentator on markets, and thus prone to pointless philosophical musings on the market. I am not, however. Bull and Bear market definitions are fine for pundits.

But as a market timer I have to say that probably THE MOST IMPORTANT THING I have learned is how to reasonably reliably be able to tell if we are in a "Bull Market Condition" or a "Bear Market Condition". And let me drill down a little bit--what's really important is being able to tell if the market is likely to trade like a Bear Market (or Bull Market). It's irrelevant to me that a market never fell more than 19% if it was trading like a Bear Market. A lot of very good traders pay a heavy price during Bear Market because their very good stuff in Bull Markets doesn't work in Bear Markets (or markets that are trading like Bear Markets). Being wrong has a big price associated with it--not just the losses themselves. Even if the losses are small, they can be exhausting and or demoralizing and can leave one unable or unwilling to be buying for those huge moves coming out of major lows.

 

Tangentially, do you guys remember how the anti-market timer folks would trot out the old, "If you missed the [Xnumber] of best days in the market you'd lose money on the year!" ploy? Well, they weren't entirely wrong. There are some big moves coming off lows and you don't want to be on the wrong side of things when they occur. Which means that you need to have your head screwed on tight (and your courage intact) towards the end of a Bear Market so you can pivot quickly and exploit bottom spotters or fast turning indicators--lots of losses are a great way to unscrew your head.

 

So it's really important to be able to contextualize the market in ways that help you make money and, more importantly, avoid needless losses.

 

the bull market is when the market goes up, the bear market is when the market goes down........LOL

 

all the rest is..........useless words and useless philosophy (saying useless philosophy is a repetition because useless is implicit to the word philosophy) 

[pdx5]

 

So it's really important to be able to contextualize the market in ways that help you make money and, more importantly, avoid needless losses.

 

 

 

There are many ways to leave a lover...there was a song with words something like that.

And there are many ways to skin a cat.

And there are many ways to win or lose in stock markets.

 

Some are day traders, some are swing traders, some are long term traders, and some are buy and hold for ever type.

All types of traders can  get rich or poor. All depends on individual luck and skill combined.

 

Personally what bothers me the most is watching my portfolio lose more than 5% of its value. That makes me lose sleep at nights.

So I changed my  trading method since reaching social security age of 62, compared to my younger years.

During the last 20 years, I never had to file a loss in my tax returns. And I spent less than 30 minutes per week watching stock markets.

This helped me get rid of all my health issues by having time to play 5 rounds of 18 every week from age 62-77.

From 78 to 83 age all I am doing is treadmill and walks on the many miles of beaches here in Florida.

As my tag line says, I really do not need more profits. Just remaining solvent until age 100 is my only goal now. Only 17 more years to go 

It looks like my heirs are going to inherit a lot.

Edited by pdx5, 13 April 2023 - 04:20 PM.

[andr99]

I was trying to respond to people asking if it is a real bull market or not. And the laughable definition I gave, which was laughable by intention, implicitely meant that.........i.e. who cares what it is ? Go long when the market rises and go short when it drops. Definitions don't bring money, actions do. But pay attention not to take a turning point of the market as a simple bounce, which is what may be happening to many right now. An opinion obviously  

Edited by andr99, 14 April 2023 - 01:35 AM.

[andr99]

as for philosophy.......there's a mathematician here who gave a definition of it that is very much adherent to what I think of it. Philosophy had a lot of success in Greece more than two thousand years ago. Our mathematician said that it was the IRRATIONAL PART of GREEK CULTURE. 

Edited by andr99, 14 April 2023 - 01:50 AM.

[andr99]

the most popular sport here in Europe is what you in America call soccer and in Europe we call football. Some years ago in our national league there was a manager from Serbia who was training one of the best teams of our league. Matches are played on Sundays and on the national tv Sundays are dedicated to pre-match and post match analysis, etc.etc.etc. In other words the most boring thing you can think to. They often talk if a penalty was a true one or simply given for a fake fault. And that time too a journalist asked the Serbian manager if the penalty against his team, was a true one or not......''was it a penalty or not in your opinion ? ''. He calmly replied ''penalty is when referee whistles''. It doesn't matter if the referee is right or wrong, what matters is if he whistles or not. Pragmatic as my definition that started this thread. It doesn't matter what you define it, what matters is that you are on the right part.  

Edited by andr99, 14 April 2023 - 03:32 AM.