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Risk Window for the Week of April 23rd and May Day, Mayday!

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 23 April 2023 - 05:36 AM

According to my risk summation system, the day this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Thursday April 27th, but this signal is so flaky that it might be wise to smear this risk window from late Wednesday the 26th through till the morning of Friday the 28th.


Last week, the downtrend in the Wednesday-Thursday risk window was looking good as an acceleration day down with nice gaps at the start and in the middle, but it ran out of steam on Friday and never really amounted to much, so not quite a dud, but not exactly a big hit acceleration risk window either.   mJM5qRb.jpg


Week after this, the 1st of May Day, the international labor day, will see workers the most restive that they've been in many a year with strikes and protests in numerous countries.   I believe that the root of their anxiety is inflation which is eating away their purchasing power with no real end in sight.  Thank you central banks!   


Given the already stirred-up labor, May Day may morph into a real mayday if the coming recession is even remotely severe.  Thank you again central banks!  The funny money printing has given central banks only two bad choices, let inflation continue to rip or drag the economy into recession to stop the inflation, a real lose, lose Hobson's choice.  So far the stock market is just happily whistling past this grave yard refusing to see what's coming.  I suspect the self-inflicted US debt crisis may finally be the slap across the face that jars Mr. Market into recognizing the buzz saw that it's merrily walking into.  Thank you Joe and Kevin!


Shown below is the triangle focus that I noted in the last couple of these posts which I projected to forecast a turn.  That focus is more or less now, so if the pattern can predict a turn, the DJIA should start turning south pretty darn soon.