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"X" Marks the Spot for Fireworks


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 27 April 2023 - 02:40 PM

It certainly looks like a low formed in the risk window that I noted in this past weekend's post.  According to my EWave count, this rally is probably part of the "c" wave up inside a larger "B" wave.  The next important turn will be the end of the "B" wave.  The plot below shows some symmetry that is pointing to a completion of the "B" wave in late June, early July at the big "X", so maybe early 4th of July fireworks leading to the start of a "C" wave down.

 

A Fib expansion from the top in blue, a Fib expansion from the end of the first wave in this "B" wave in red and an "A" = "B" measurement in green  all point to this late June early July window for an end to all this happiness.   No idea what the driver might be, but there's an Uber full of potential ones for this "C" wave wreck.  

 

T1TX0YS.jpg

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 slupert

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Posted 27 April 2023 - 03:37 PM

Earnings took precedence over macro, possibly seeting us up for a big let down. This mornings data does not show inflation  retreating the they they want it too. I think bulls will be m in for a big surprise next week, I see an opportunity being created here on the short side. Inflation is far from under control, we are looking at higher for longer.  . Rate cuts later this year?? I doubt it. So, from tomorrow to the Fed. meeting, let see if they return from earnings, to macro. Are we already over are skis? I think so.

  Another thing I've been thinking about ; this weeks earnings from the behemoths, were all about how well their moats work, not  "Happy Days Are Here Again". (JMHO)


Edited by slupert, 27 April 2023 - 03:38 PM.


#3 Douglas

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Posted 27 April 2023 - 10:45 PM

Slupert, that red "B" could end at any time.  My projection above of a top out into this summer just looks nice, and I am a sucker for symmetry, but that's it, no other real reason that the market can't start heading south and go away in May early next week. 

 

Also the straight up FOMO short squeeze rally yesterday would seem to me to indicate that there's plenty of closet bulls out there chewing at the bit to buy, so from a contrarian point of view that should be bearish.   Then there's the Fed meeting next week which  might be an excuse to get the bear party started, or maybe the debt crisis, like I said above, plenty of potential bad drivers out there.

 

Regards,

Douglas