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SQUEEZE on SHORTS - seasonally bearish MAY


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2023 - 04:52 PM

I am slightly LONG, with partial HEDGE SHORTS

Also holding 32 TLT CALLS and 40 UVXY CALLS 

 

Painful SQUEEZE on SHORTS but my FF is retracement until FED event on Wednesday and then a wild 2 days to end the week

 

I am not confident this rally can persist for more than a week or so BUT IT CAN SURVIVE and LAST FOR WEEKS if the FED pivots, even a soft pivot or tilt. 

FED WILL raise 25bps, PAUSE, and also try to TALK DOWN THE MARKETS. 

 

In this volatile and erratic trading environment I will continue with VST and ST trades until market settles down -- but that may never happen for weeks or months

 

NEW BULL MARKET is here now in very early stages but can suffer a few setbacks before taking off to new ATHs by end of 2023, 

 

Geopolitical events can smash the market for months so that is the caveat for any FF



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2023 - 05:52 PM

Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) tweeted at 4:10 PM on Sun, Apr 30, 2023:
"Sell the last rate hike"
"Sell in May and go away"

Same as my mantra since March 12th:
Buy the rumor of Fed pause/pivot
Sell the news of Fed pause/pivot

But Fed has no reason to pivot until unemployment gets > 4%, and if markets have rallied on pulling forward rate cuts, what would happen if Fed says:

'Since the long-term average is 4.60%, we're in the sweet-spot, so we plan to defend this level.'

Result: 5% is the New Not Normal

bloomberg.com/news/articles/

(https://twitter.com/...1649576960?s=03)

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2023 - 05:55 PM

Just trade the markets, up or down.

Adam Khoo (@adamkhootrader) tweeted at 11:52 AM on Sun, Apr 30, 2023:

Every year, as May approaches, you will hear the old saying... " Sell in May and Go Away". Any truth?

In the last 10 years, the month of May ended negative only in 2019. The average of all May months is 0.9%.... and 90% of the time, it was positive
https://t.co/VinlF2erKIhttps://t.co/467N1Gfh5Y
May to October has been historically a weak seasonal period for the US markets. Is it worth selling in May and re-entering in November?

Over the last 10 years, the May-Oct period produced gains 80% of the time with an average return of 4.9%. https://t.co/TTQsBQHvZV

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2023 - 05:59 PM

Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) tweeted at 9:25 AM on Fri, Apr 21, 2023:

One perspective on Sell in May.

Last 50 years - S&P
Qtr 1 : Oct27-Jan27 38-12 avg +4.26%
Qtr 2 : Jan27-Apr27 35-15 avg +3.19%
Qtr 3 : Apr27-Jul27 31-19 avg +1.89%
Qtr 4 : Jul27-Oct27 24-26 avg -0.82%

May is 32-18, avg 0.63%.
Most of damage is late summer.

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2023 - 06:07 PM

Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) tweeted at 10:33 AM on Sat, Apr 29, 2023:

The drop in the VIX Index on Friday took it well below its distant month futures, which actually rose, widening this spread.

https://t.co/TmZ5M1njlR

#6 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2023 - 06:08 PM

McOsc back above zero

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) tweeted at 10:33 AM on Sat, Apr 29, 2023:

The drop in the VIX Index on Friday took it well below its distant month futures, which actually rose, widening this spread.

https://t.co/TmZ5M1njlR



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 01 May 2023 - 05:47 AM

The Citizenry, especially the poor & middle-class, paid JPM $13 BILLION to take FRB.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be about $13 billion.

Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) tweeted at 6:30 AM on Mon, May 01, 2023:
JPMorgan Chase Bank to assume all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of First Republic Bank.

https://t.co/yQCnun4yFKhttps://t.co/hPtLeCOkwK
(https://twitter.com/...4861707264?s=03)

#8 K Wave

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Posted 01 May 2023 - 07:50 AM

Rusty at VERY interesting juncture with multiple time frames aligning around1780...if it clears that today, could start to look like a huge fumble on bears part.

 

Also watching SOX here after bulls did they had to do do on Friday....

 

When things break down, and then do not STAY down, can be a big intermediate tell..

 

See how it plays out here today.


Edited by K Wave, 01 May 2023 - 07:50 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 K Wave

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Posted 01 May 2023 - 07:59 AM

The Citizenry, especially the poor & middle-class, paid JPM $13 BILLION to take FRB.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be about $13 billion.

Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) tweeted at 6:30 AM on Mon, May 01, 2023:
JPMorgan Chase Bank to assume all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of First Republic Bank.

https://t.co/yQCnun4yFKhttps://t.co/hPtLeCOkwK
(https://twitter.com/...4861707264?s=03)

We live in a criminal Facist (merger of Corporate and State) Kleptocracy.....

 

Until the people demand better, nothing will change, and they have done a fantastic job of dumbing down our kids over the last number of decades....so not likely any time soon.


Edited by K Wave, 01 May 2023 - 07:59 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#10 K Wave

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Posted 01 May 2023 - 08:05 AM

McOsc back above zero

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/
 

Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) tweeted at 10:33 AM on Sat, Apr 29, 2023:

The drop in the VIX Index on Friday took it well below its distant month futures, which actually rose, widening this spread.

https://t.co/TmZ5M1njlR

 

What I am on the watch for now is summations taking out last swing high....would be hard to interpret that as anything other than bullish should it occur soon.

 

Would then REALLY start to look like the Shake It before you Bake It action last week.

 

https://stockcharts....id=p83733137120

https://stockcharts....id=p44465978337

 

 

If bears are gonna keep it, they need to keep bulls from gettin' a fresh breadth of air....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy