pdx5, I have no idea where rates are going in this Fed distorted, non-market discovery interest rate fantasy world. Currently the long bond yields 3.87% in a 5% inflation world (if you believe the heavily massaged BLS numbers, 8.5% inflation if you believe shadowstats). That's a negative 1.13% real return. In the Fed 2% inflation target world the real yield is still only a lousy 1.87% at current long bond prices. Can the yield go lower if the economy slows, you betcha. How low, who knows. In a world where the Fed is willing to pad their balance sheet with countless billions to manipulate rates, lower rates is probably a good guess.
Eventually, of course, economic reality will brutally reassert control and demolish this house of cards, but as the father of economic pumping, John Maynard Keynes, once said "The markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent." So picking a crazy near future bond yield is currently probably quite rational. In the land of the mad insanity rules.